The Q4 2024 Cox Automotive Dealer Sentiment Index (CADSI) released today shows growing optimism among U.S. auto dealers. However, despite current weak market conditions, the post-election survey indicates increasing dealer confidence. The final Auto Market Report video of the year, noted that after a very strong November, December appears to be off to a strong start.
“We saw a surge in the outlook, technically the largest surge we have had quarterly in the history of the data,” said Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke. “It is the best fourth quarter since 2021, which was the most profitable quarter in dealer history.”
According to new Kelley Blue Book data released today, the industry-wide average transaction price (ATP) for a new vehicle in the U.S. was $48,724 in November, an increase of $699 year over year and a $720 increase month over month. Sales incentives for new vehicles in November averaged 8.0% of ATP. Incentives have now increased for five straight months and continue to entice buyers.
“We are getting clear feedback that the tax credits are working in both the new and the used markets,” said Smoke. “The numbers have been moving higher and higher for franchises and are up substantially year over year. They have been pretty stable for independents all year but up year over year. This is something that could change fairly rapidly next year, so I think the diminishing outlook is directly tied to the at-risk status of the EV tax credits.”
Executive Summary
- The top factor holding back business is the Economy, with 56% of dealers citing it as a significant concern.
- Despite a significant quarter-over-quarter drop, Interest Rates remain a close second at 52%.
- Market Conditions was cited by 37% of dealers. After the recent election, 35% of dealers surveyed in Q4 reported that the Political Climate in the U.S. is affecting their business. This is a significant decrease from the 44% of all dealers and 49% of franchised dealers recorded in the previous quarter.
- The Q4 percentage is slightly higher than one year ago when it stood at 33%.
- Completing the top five, 33% of dealers identified Expenses as a barrier holding back business.
*Cox Automotive
Cox Automotive says it is the world’s largest automotive services and technology provider. Fueled by the largest breadth of first-party data fed by 2.3 billion online interactions a year, Cox Automotive tailors leading solutions for car shoppers, automakers, dealers, retailers, lenders, and fleet owners. The company has 25,000-plus employees on five continents and a family of trusted brands that includes Autotrader®, Dealertrack®, Kelley Blue Book®, Manheim®, NextGear Capital™, and vAuto®. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately owned, Atlanta-based company with $22 billion in annual revenue. Visit coxautoinc.com or connect via @CoxAutomotive on X, CoxAutoInc on Facebook, or Cox-Automotive-Inc on LinkedIn.
**Jonathan Smoke – Cox Automotive Chief Economist
Jonathan Smoke leads Cox Automotive’s economic and industry insights team, which tracks key metrics and trends impacting both the wholesale and retail markets for vehicles informed by the proprietary data from the company’s businesses and platforms. For 28 years, Smoke has focused on translating data and trends into relevant actionable insights for the industries that represent the biggest purchases that consumers make in their lifetimes: real estate and automotive. Smoke joined Cox Automotive in 2017.
December U.S. Auto Sales Start Strong
The Q4 2024 Cox Automotive Dealer Sentiment Index (CADSI) released today shows growing optimism among U.S. auto dealers. However, despite current weak market conditions, the post-election survey indicates increasing dealer confidence. The final Auto Market Report video of the year, noted that after a very strong November, December appears to be off to a strong start.
“We saw a surge in the outlook, technically the largest surge we have had quarterly in the history of the data,” said Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke. “It is the best fourth quarter since 2021, which was the most profitable quarter in dealer history.”
According to new Kelley Blue Book data released today, the industry-wide average transaction price (ATP) for a new vehicle in the U.S. was $48,724 in November, an increase of $699 year over year and a $720 increase month over month. Sales incentives for new vehicles in November averaged 8.0% of ATP. Incentives have now increased for five straight months and continue to entice buyers.
“We are getting clear feedback that the tax credits are working in both the new and the used markets,” said Smoke. “The numbers have been moving higher and higher for franchises and are up substantially year over year. They have been pretty stable for independents all year but up year over year. This is something that could change fairly rapidly next year, so I think the diminishing outlook is directly tied to the at-risk status of the EV tax credits.”
Executive Summary
*Cox Automotive
Cox Automotive says it is the world’s largest automotive services and technology provider. Fueled by the largest breadth of first-party data fed by 2.3 billion online interactions a year, Cox Automotive tailors leading solutions for car shoppers, automakers, dealers, retailers, lenders, and fleet owners. The company has 25,000-plus employees on five continents and a family of trusted brands that includes Autotrader®, Dealertrack®, Kelley Blue Book®, Manheim®, NextGear Capital™, and vAuto®. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately owned, Atlanta-based company with $22 billion in annual revenue. Visit coxautoinc.com or connect via @CoxAutomotive on X, CoxAutoInc on Facebook, or Cox-Automotive-Inc on LinkedIn.
**Jonathan Smoke – Cox Automotive Chief Economist
Jonathan Smoke leads Cox Automotive’s economic and industry insights team, which tracks key metrics and trends impacting both the wholesale and retail markets for vehicles informed by the proprietary data from the company’s businesses and platforms. For 28 years, Smoke has focused on translating data and trends into relevant actionable insights for the industries that represent the biggest purchases that consumers make in their lifetimes: real estate and automotive. Smoke joined Cox Automotive in 2017.