Annualized sales of new vehicles in the U.S. will be about 11.8 million units in July. This is the third straight month below the 12 million mark as the U.S. economy remains close to reentering a recession.
In spite of hundreds upon hundreds of billions of dollars in U.S. government deficit spending, economic growth basically halted in the first half of 2011. The advance estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is that real GDP rose by 1.3% at an annual rate in the second quarter of 2011, following a 0.4% increase in the first quarter, which is a revision downward from overly optimistic government data previously released. This is slower than the anemic growth in the second half of 2010, when the economy expanded by 2.4% at an annual rate. It means official unemployment rates of more than 9% for the foreseeable future. And the official rates are likely half the actual rates, according to critics.
Auto sales in July for retail seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) are predicted to come in at 9.6 million units, 300,000 units stronger than 9.3 million unit SAAR in June, according to J.D. Power and Associates, which gathers data from more than 8,900 retail franchisees throughout the United States.
New-vehicle retail sales in July, which got off to strong start over the Independence Day weekend, have again slowed during the second half of the month—a pattern also seen in June 2011.
“The auto industry is having a difficult time shaking off adversity, as vehicle sales start the second half of the year better than June, but not as strong as many people had hoped,” said Jeff Schuster, executive director of global forecasting at J.D. Power and Associates.
“A recovery pattern is still expected, but the pace could be in question as reported weaker GDP growth in the first half of the year may dampen the outlook.”
Online advertised vacancies were down 217,000 in July to 4,154,500, according to The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine (HWOL) Data Series released August 1. The July drop follows a decline of 100,000 in June after a basically flat period in April and May. The Supply/Demand rate stands at 3.22, indicating there were just over 3 unemployed for every online advertised vacancy in June, the latest monthly data available for unemployment.
“The national trend in labor demand, while positive in the first quarter of 2011, turned negative in the second quarter. And with the July loss, monthly labor demand is now 54,000 below the January level,” said June Shelp, Vice President at The Conference Board.