U.S. EV Adoption to Stall in 2025

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J.D. Power said today that it is projecting that 2025 will be a flat year for EV adoption, in which total retail share will hold at 9.1% as manufacturers and consumers adjust to new market undercurrents.*

“Amid a flurry of speculation about how Trump administration policies on everything from EV incentives and tariffs on foreign imports to federal emissions and mileage standards will affect the future of EV adoption, J.D. Power has focused its attention on the data, reassessing the major trends in EV adoption for the past four years, and analyzing current government policies and manufacturer strategies to get the most accurate reading possible on consumer sentiment heading into 2025. Though many variables are still at play, which could create potential headwinds and tailwinds to EV adoption, J.D. Power is projecting that 2025 will be a reset year for EV adoption, in which total retail share will hold at 9.1% as manufacturers and consumers adjust to new market dynamics,” J.D. Power said.

“The Trump administration has indicated that it intends to end the $7500 federal Clean Vehicle Tax Credit as part of its plan to overhaul the U.S. government. Based on J.D. Power research, these federal tax credits have played a major role in incentivizing current EV owners to purchase or lease an EV. Similarly, uncertainty concerning the future of tariffs placed on imported products and continued consumer frustration with public charging have created some significant headwinds to growth in EV adoption,

“Longer term, the forecast calls for the EV market to reach 26% retail share by 2030, which is approximately half of the market share the Biden administration targeted in its climate agenda,” Power said.

California has been the largest consumer market for EVs and, according to J.D. Power forecasts, the state is expected to reach 84% retail share by 2035. However, in 2024, the total number of EVs sold in California declined slightly, while states such as New York, Florida and Colorado have become new growth hot spots. The total number of EV sales in New York rose 23,000, followed by Florida (22,400), Colorado (14,600), Michigan (10,700) and Texas (8,400). “Achieving more even growth rates across the country—along with charging infrastructure to support that growth—will be key to the future of the EV market,” Power said.

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