The latest U.S. March sales forecast of 1.7 million light vehicles tallies for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate of 17.2 million. The projected sales – if accurate – are a 23.5% increase from February 2016, and a 7.3 % increase from March 2015.
This means that the data so far in 2016 contradicts pessimists who thought last year’s record light vehicle sales – the strongest in 15 years – was the top of the market. During 2015 offshore brands continued to dominate, once you get past the one-two-three punch from the Detroit Three pickup trucks – F-Series, Silverado and Ram. Globally sales are murkier and potentially negative in China, Russia and South America.
“March auto sales show another month of positive year-over-year growth, rounding out a consistently strong first quarter for the industry,” said Jessica Caldwell, Director of Industry Analysis at Edmunds.com.
“The sales we saw in these three months sets us up for another potentially record-breaking year, especially as we began to approach the popular summer selling season,” Caldwell said.
The biggest winners appear to be Honda, Toyota and FCA with Y-O-Y sales increases of 16.7%, 14.4% and 13.4% respectively.
“In 2016, we expect industry new vehicle sales will continue to exceed 17 million,” according to Mike Jackson, Chairman, CEO and President of AutoNation (NYSE: AN).
Edmunds.com estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 13.4 million vehicles in March, with fleet transactions at 22% of total sales. An estimated 3.6 million used cars will be sold in March, for a SAAR of 36.7 million, compared to 3.5 million or a SAAR of 37.4 million used car sales in February.
