Click to enlarge.
Total new-vehicle sales for April 2024, including both retail and non-retail transactions, are estimated to reach 1,304,600 units, a 0.9% decrease from April 2023 on a selling day adjusted basis, according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power and GlobalData.* April 2024 has 25 selling days, one fewer than April 2023.
“April is showing mixed results, with an increase in retail sales offset by a decline in sales to fleet buyers,” said Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at Power. “This is a notable change from recent months in which manufacturers have increased fleet sales. Although sales to retail buyers are rising, the rate of growth is modest. This is due in part to discounts from manufacturers and retailers stabilizing, coupled with ongoing deterioration of used-vehicle values that results in shoppers having less trade-in equity.”
“The average new-vehicle retail transaction price is declining as manufacturer incentives rise, retailer profit margins fall, and availability of lower-priced vehicles increases compared to a year ago. Transaction prices are trending towards $45,093 – down $1172 or 2.5% – from April 2023. The combination of slightly higher retail sales but lower transaction prices mean that consumers are on track to spend nearly $46.4 billion on new vehicles this month – 3.5% lower than April 2023 and the fourth-highest April on record,” King said.
EV Forecast
“EV retail share is trending at 8.9% this month, up from the first quarter average of 8.3%. Furthermore, the percentage of shoppers who are ‘very likely’ to consider an EV for their next vehicle is up to 22.9%, breaking a five-month declining trend,” said Elizabeth Krear, vice president, electric vehicle practice at J.D. Power.
“Affordability, which is one of the factors tracked in the J.D. Power EV Index, is up 4 points to 105, the highest level we’ve seen since tracking was initiated three years ago. This means that, on average, EVs are more affordable than comparable gas-powered vehicles in terms of total cost of ownership. Given that affordability is one of the key reasons shoppers reject EVs, it’s incumbent that manufacturers and dealers work to educate shoppers and correct some of their mis-perceptions,” said Krear.
US – Quick Summary
- The average new-vehicle retail transaction price in April is expected to reach $45,093, down $1,172 from April 2023. The previous high for any month – $47,329 – was set in December 2022.
- Average incentive spending per unit in April is expected to reach $2,633, up from $1,680 in April 2023. Spending as a percentage of the average MSRP is expected to increase to 5.3%, up 1.9 percentage points from April 2023.
- Average incentive spending per unit on trucks/SUVs in April is expected to be $2,765, up $1,007 from a year ago, while the average spending on cars is expected to be $2,129, up $737 from a year ago.
- Retail buyers are on pace to spend $46.4 billion on new vehicles, down $1.7 billion from April 2023.
- Trucks/SUVs are on pace to account for 79.2% of new-vehicle retail sales in April.
- Fleet sales are expected to total 219,687 units in April, down 13.6% from April 2023 on a selling day adjusted basis. Fleet volume is expected to account for 16.8% of total light-vehicle sales, down 2.5 percentage points from a year ago.
- Average interest rates for new-vehicle loans are expected to increase to 7%, 20 basis points higher than a year ago.
Global Sales
“Global light-vehicle sales finished the first quarter at 20.7 million units, up 4% from Q1 2023,” said Jeff Schuster, vice president of research, automotive at GlobalData. “The selling rate averaged 83 million units during the quarter, with the March selling rate being largely in line with February. Sales volume grew just 1% from March 2023, with mixed results at a regional level.”
Global Observations and Comments
- Domestic sales in China accelerated in March, increasing 4% year over year and, when combined with the 6% increase in North America, stable growth at the topline level continues.
- Sales in Japan continue to plunge, down 21% in March, fueled by mini-vehicle production suspension.
- Korea declined 12% but the selling rate improved slightly.
- Europe was mixed with Western Europe contracting 1% but recovery in Russia and Ukraine—and growth in Turkey—driving Eastern Europe to a 4% increase.
“Global light-vehicle volume in April looks to be solid, up 6% year over year. The global selling rate also is expected to accelerate to 87.8 million units, 4 million units above April 2023. A rebound in Western Europe, growth in China and continued recovery in Eastern Europe drive the growth in April. With a tough year-over-year comparison, North America is expected to contract slightly, but maintain a solid selling rate,” said Shuster.
“The outlook for 2024 is essentially unchanged at 89.2 million units, a 3% increase from 2023. This year is a balancing act between supply and demand. As production constraints fully dissipate, natural demand will be able to be met at current prices. Given that we do expect some easing of pricing throughout most major markets, the global auto industry is expected to maintain a positive outlook in the near term,” Shuster said.
AutoInformed on
*GlobalData
GlobalData says that “4000 of the world’s largest companies, including over 70% of FTSE 100 and 60% of Fortune 100 companies, make more timely and better business decisions thanks to GlobalData’s unique data, expert analysis and innovative solutions, all in one platform. GlobalData’s mission is to help our clients decode the future to be more successful and innovative across a range of industries, including the healthcare, consumer, retail, financial, technology and professional services sectors.” J.D. Power is also part of GlobalData. Inquiries at: customersuccess.automotive@globaldata.com.
April US New Vehicle Sales Flat as Trade-in Values Drop
Click to enlarge.
Total new-vehicle sales for April 2024, including both retail and non-retail transactions, are estimated to reach 1,304,600 units, a 0.9% decrease from April 2023 on a selling day adjusted basis, according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power and GlobalData.* April 2024 has 25 selling days, one fewer than April 2023.
“April is showing mixed results, with an increase in retail sales offset by a decline in sales to fleet buyers,” said Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at Power. “This is a notable change from recent months in which manufacturers have increased fleet sales. Although sales to retail buyers are rising, the rate of growth is modest. This is due in part to discounts from manufacturers and retailers stabilizing, coupled with ongoing deterioration of used-vehicle values that results in shoppers having less trade-in equity.”
“The average new-vehicle retail transaction price is declining as manufacturer incentives rise, retailer profit margins fall, and availability of lower-priced vehicles increases compared to a year ago. Transaction prices are trending towards $45,093 – down $1172 or 2.5% – from April 2023. The combination of slightly higher retail sales but lower transaction prices mean that consumers are on track to spend nearly $46.4 billion on new vehicles this month – 3.5% lower than April 2023 and the fourth-highest April on record,” King said.
EV Forecast
“EV retail share is trending at 8.9% this month, up from the first quarter average of 8.3%. Furthermore, the percentage of shoppers who are ‘very likely’ to consider an EV for their next vehicle is up to 22.9%, breaking a five-month declining trend,” said Elizabeth Krear, vice president, electric vehicle practice at J.D. Power.
“Affordability, which is one of the factors tracked in the J.D. Power EV Index, is up 4 points to 105, the highest level we’ve seen since tracking was initiated three years ago. This means that, on average, EVs are more affordable than comparable gas-powered vehicles in terms of total cost of ownership. Given that affordability is one of the key reasons shoppers reject EVs, it’s incumbent that manufacturers and dealers work to educate shoppers and correct some of their mis-perceptions,” said Krear.
US – Quick Summary
Global Sales
“Global light-vehicle sales finished the first quarter at 20.7 million units, up 4% from Q1 2023,” said Jeff Schuster, vice president of research, automotive at GlobalData. “The selling rate averaged 83 million units during the quarter, with the March selling rate being largely in line with February. Sales volume grew just 1% from March 2023, with mixed results at a regional level.”
Global Observations and Comments
“Global light-vehicle volume in April looks to be solid, up 6% year over year. The global selling rate also is expected to accelerate to 87.8 million units, 4 million units above April 2023. A rebound in Western Europe, growth in China and continued recovery in Eastern Europe drive the growth in April. With a tough year-over-year comparison, North America is expected to contract slightly, but maintain a solid selling rate,” said Shuster.
“The outlook for 2024 is essentially unchanged at 89.2 million units, a 3% increase from 2023. This year is a balancing act between supply and demand. As production constraints fully dissipate, natural demand will be able to be met at current prices. Given that we do expect some easing of pricing throughout most major markets, the global auto industry is expected to maintain a positive outlook in the near term,” Shuster said.
AutoInformed on
*GlobalData
GlobalData says that “4000 of the world’s largest companies, including over 70% of FTSE 100 and 60% of Fortune 100 companies, make more timely and better business decisions thanks to GlobalData’s unique data, expert analysis and innovative solutions, all in one platform. GlobalData’s mission is to help our clients decode the future to be more successful and innovative across a range of industries, including the healthcare, consumer, retail, financial, technology and professional services sectors.” J.D. Power is also part of GlobalData. Inquiries at: customersuccess.automotive@globaldata.com.