California Greenhouse Gases – Emissions Drop Continues

Ken Zino of Auto Informed.com on Latest California Greenhouse Gas Inventory

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The California Air Resources Board today released greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory data for 2019, showing further reductions below the AB 32 emissions reduction target. That target, a return to 1990 GHG levels, was achieved by the state four years ahead of schedule in 2016. The numbers in the new inventory show that emissions continue to fall, from 425 million metric tons in 2018 to 418 million metric tons in 2019. While progress around deployment of cleaner vehicle technology and fuels was significant, increases in per capita vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in passenger cars continued to rise slightly.

“This inventory is good news, but much larger reductions are needed to reach the ambitious 2030 target — an additional 40% reduction below the original 2020 limit,” said CARB Chair Liane M. Randolph. “We are now once again witnessing massive wildfires and recurring heat waves while large parts of our state are suffering from extreme drought. This is a clear call to redouble our efforts to protect those communities already hard hit by pollution and climate change, and to move with all possible speed to achieve carbon neutrality by mid-century as quickly as possible.”

The 2019 GHG Inventory is additional evidence of California’s leadership in setting ambitious climate targets and matching enforceable actions, is delivering real reductions. Consider:

  • Per capita GHG emissions in California have dropped from a 2001 peak of 14.0 metric tons per person to 10.5 metric tons per person in 2019, a 25% decrease and about half the national average for per capita emissions.
  • Overall trends demonstrate that the carbon intensity of California’s economy is declining. Economic carbon intensity measures the amount of carbon emitted per million dollars of production. From 2000 to 2019, the carbon intensity of California’s economy decreased by 45 % while the state’s GDP increased by 63%.

Transportation emissions declined again in 2019, in part because of a 61% increase in the use of renewable diesel fuel under the Low Carbon Fuel Standard. As a result, biodiesel and renewable diesel made up 27% of all on-road diesel sold in the state, displacing nearly 900 million gallons of fossil fuel-derived diesel. That is a reduction of 17 million metric tons of carbon dioxide in 2019. While progress around deployment of cleaner vehicle technology and fuels was significant, increases in per capita vehicle miles travelled (VMT) in passenger cars continued to rise slightly.

Other details from the 2019 GHG Inventory:

  • Emissions from residential and commercial buildings increased again, with emissions due in part to increases in natural gas use. Progress around building decarbonization is necessary to ensure all sector emissions will achieve the SB 32 target
  • Electric power emissions again declined as utilities continue to make progress towards achieving their SB 350 targets coupled with the increased availability of hydropower in 2019.

California will require much deeper GHG emissions reductions to reach its 2030 target of 40% below 1990 levels, and carbon neutrality no later than 2045, or sooner. At the Governor’s request, CARB will evaluate ways for the state to achieve carbon neutrality by 2035, including how to reduce fossil fuel demand and supply and phase out extraction in the state. The Public Utilities Commission will work to establish a more ambitious greenhouse gas emissions planning target for utilities.

Governor Newsom also has directed the Department of Conservation’s Geologic Energy Management Division to initiate the rule-making process to halt the issuance of new hydrologic fracking permits by 2024 and requested that CARB analyze ways to phase out oil extraction across the state by no later than 2045.

Many of the key programs that helped achieve the 2020 target early doubled in stringency beginning this year. Starting in 2021 the Renewables Portfolio Standard increased from 33% renewable electricity in 2020 to 60% by 2030. The Low Carbon Fuel Standard increased the reduction of the carbon-intensity of vehicle fuels from 10% in 2020 to 20% by 2030. And the cap-and-trade regulation doubled in stringency from a 2% decline in available allowances each year to a 4% decline each year for this decade.

Additional existing and new programs should increase reductions further. These include rules to cut emissions from climate super pollutants such as methane and hydro-fluorocarbon refrigerants. There are also new regulations to further push electrification to achieve 100% zero-emission passenger car sales in 2035 and 100% zero-emission trucks and big-rigs by 2045 in line with Governor Newsom’s Executive Order N-79-20.

Additional regulations address diesel off-road and cargo-handling equipment used in ports and railyards. A new regulation under development is the first in the country to require the electrification of vehicles used by ride sharing companies such as Uber and Lyft. These on- and off-road programs , especially the rapid introduction of zero-emission trucks at ports and railyards, also will reduce air pollutants and air toxics that afflict the state’s most disadvantaged communities.

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