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Total new-vehicle sales for October 2025, including retail and non-retail transactions, are projected to reach 1,249,800, a 6.9% decrease year-over-year, according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power* and GlobalData.** October 2025 has 27 selling days, the same as October 2024. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is forecast to be 15.1 million units, down 1.1 million units from October 2024.
“October’s results reflect a notable, but expected decline in the new-vehicle sales pace, due almost entirely to sales of electric vehicles. “The expiration of federal EV credits on Sept. 30 caused EV shoppers to pull ahead their purchases, driving a significant increase in EV sales and inflating the overall industry sales pace,” said Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power.
“In September, EVs accounted for 12.9% of new-vehicle retail sales, the highest ever, and well above the 8.5% recorded a year earlier. Now that the federal EV credit has expired, the industry is dealing with the consequences of those accelerated purchases. In October, EVs represent just 5.2% of new-vehicle retail sales. On a volume basis, EVs account for 1.0 million of the 1.2 million-unit decline in the industry sales pace compared with a month ago,” said King.
Main Forecast Details
- Fleet sales are expected to total 198,412 units in October, down 12.1% from October 2024. Fleet volume is expected to account for 15.9% of total light-vehicle sales, down 0.9 percentage points from a year ago.
- Internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles are projected to account for 79.2% of new-vehicle retail sales, an increase of 2.4 percentage points from a year ago. Plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV) are on pace to make up 1.0% of sales, down 1.4 percentage points from October 2024, while electric vehicles (EV) are expected to account for 5.2% of sales, down 3.4 percentage points year over year, and hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) are expected to account for 14.2% of new-vehicle retail sales, up 2.0 percentage points.
- U.S. final assembly vehicles are expected to make up 56.7% of sales in October, up 5.5 percentage points from a year ago.
- Trucks/SUVs are on pace to account for 82.3% of new-vehicle retail sales, up 1.3 percentage points from October 2024.
- Retail inventory levels are currently at 2.27 million units, an 11.5% increase from October 2024.
- The industry’s inventory days of supply is 61 days in October, up from 59 days a year ago.
- The average new-vehicle retail transaction price in October is expected to reach $46,057,up $994 from October 2024. Transaction price as a percentage of MSRP rose to 90.5%, up 0.7 percentage points from a year ago.
- Retail buyers are on pace to spend $46.1 billion on new vehicles, down $2.0 billion from October 2024.
- Average incentive spending per unit in October is expected to reach $2674, down $444 from October 2024. Incentive spending as a percentage of the average MSRP is expected to decrease to 5.3%, down 1.0 percentage point from October 2024.
- Average incentive spending per unit on trucks/SUVs in October is expected to be $2798, down $473 from a year ago, while the average spending on cars is expected to be $2068, down $350 from a year ago.
- Leasing is expected to account for 20.5% of sales this month, down 2.7 percentage points from a year ago.
- The average time a new vehicle remains in the dealer’s possession before sale is expected to be 49 days in October, down from 50 days a year ago.
- 3% of vehicles sold in less than 10 days in October, down 1.8 percentage points from a year ago.
- Average monthly finance payments are on pace to be $758, up $21 from October 2024. The average interest rate for new-vehicle loans is expected to be 6.56%, down 0.14 percentage points from a year ago.
- So far in October, average used-vehicle retail prices are $29,446, up $473 from a year ago. Trade-in equity is trending towards $8378, which is up $386 from a year ago.
- 6% of trade-ins are expected to carry negative equity this month—an increase of 2.2 percentage points from October 2024.
- Finance loans with terms greater than or equal to 84 months are expected to reach 11.8% of finance sales this month, up 2.2 percentage points from October 2024.
Electrification Viewpoints
“The automotive industry is experiencing a significant re-calibration in the electric vehicle segment in the first month following the expiration of the federal tax credits. October EV market share declined to 5.2% month-to-date, less than half of September’s 12.9%, signaling a notable shift in consumer demand and market dynamics,” said Tyson Jominy, senior vice president of data & analytics at J.D. Power.
- “Plug-in hybrids are facing the steepest decline, with market share dropping nearly 60%, from 2.2% in September to just 1.0% in October. As a result, automakers and consumers are turning their attention to traditional hybrids, which have gained traction. Hybrid market share has risen to 14.2% month-to-date, up 2.0 percentage points from last October, a near all-time high.
- “While hybrid growth is encouraging, the recent EV market correction underscores a critical lesson: consumers prefer having access to a range of powertrain options that deliver comparable value. A singular focus on any one technology – be it EVs or hybrids – risks repeating past missteps. A diversified strategy that embraces multiple powertrain solutions will be essential to meeting evolving consumer preferences,” said Jominy.
Global Sales Outlook is Murky
“September global light-vehicle sales increased 6.9% year over year to 8.1 million units, as key regions delivered year-over-year growth. The selling rate for September finished at 94.5 million units, down from an upwardly revised 95.4 million units in August,” said David Oakley, manager, Americas vehicle sales forecasts at GlobalData.
- “China, the United States and Europe made the largest contributions to year-over-year sales gains in September. As has been the case in recent months, Japan saw a year-over-year decline in September, but the decrease was modest and did little to dampen (sic)the robust growth that the global industry enjoyed in September. The Chinese government has intervened in its domestic market to discourage excessive discounting amid a price war between manufacturers, resulting in lower incentives in September. Still, the government continues to support sales through a trade-in scheme, keeping volumes healthy.
- “October global sales are expected to decrease 2.3% from October 2024. Although many regions are likely to see stable volumes or slight increases in year-over-year terms, declines in North America and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are expected to result in a modest global year-over-year decrease. Pressures on auto financing are constraining sales in Russia. The global selling rate is expected to reach 91.3 million units in October, down from a rate of 93.8 million units in October 2024.
- “Trade tensions between the United States and China appear to be on the rise again, as disagreements over the export of rare earth minerals ramp up. However, the extension of government support to the Chinese market and a more upbeat set of recent results in Europe has led to upward revisions to the global light-vehicle forecast. We now see total 2025 sales at 91.2 million units, representing growth of 2.7% year over year,” said Oakley.
*AutoInformed on
**GlobalData
GlobalData says that “4000 of the world’s largest companies, including over 70% of FTSE 100 and 60% of Fortune 100 companies, make more timely and better business decisions thanks to GlobalData’s unique data, expert analysis, and innovative solutions, all in one platform. GlobalData’s mission is to help our clients decode the future to be more successful and innovative across a range of industries, including the healthcare, consumer, retail, financial, technology and professional services sectors.” J.D. Power is also part of GlobalData. Inquiries at: customersuccess.automotive@globaldata.com.
About Ken Zino
Ken Zino, editor and publisher of AutoInformed, is a versatile auto industry participant with global experience spanning decades in print and broadcast journalism, as well as social media. He has automobile testing, marketing, public relations and communications experience. He is past president of The International Motor Press Assn, the Detroit Press Club, founding member and first President of the Automotive Press Assn. He is a member of APA, IMPA and the Midwest Automotive Press Assn.
He also brings an historical perspective while citing their contemporary relevance of the work of legendary auto writers such as Ken Purdy, Jim Dunne or Jerry Flint, or writers such as Red Smith, Mark Twain, Thomas Jefferson – all to bring perspective to a chaotic automotive universe.
Above all, decades after he first drove a car, Zino still revels in the sound of the exhaust as the throttle is blipped during a downshift and the driver’s rush that occurs when the entry, apex and exit points of a turn are smoothly and swiftly crossed. It’s the beginning of a perfect lap.
AutoInformed has an editorial philosophy that loves transportation machines of all kinds while promoting critical thinking about the future use of cars and trucks.
Zino builds AutoInformed from his background in automotive journalism starting at Hearst Publishing in New York City on Motor and MotorTech Magazines and car testing where he reviewed hundreds of vehicles in his decade-long stint as the Detroit Bureau Chief of Road & Track magazine. Zino has also worked in Europe, and Asia – now the largest automotive market in the world with China at its center.
October U.S. Vehicle Sales Forecast Flat. Global Sales Up
Click for more.
Total new-vehicle sales for October 2025, including retail and non-retail transactions, are projected to reach 1,249,800, a 6.9% decrease year-over-year, according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power* and GlobalData.** October 2025 has 27 selling days, the same as October 2024. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is forecast to be 15.1 million units, down 1.1 million units from October 2024.
“October’s results reflect a notable, but expected decline in the new-vehicle sales pace, due almost entirely to sales of electric vehicles. “The expiration of federal EV credits on Sept. 30 caused EV shoppers to pull ahead their purchases, driving a significant increase in EV sales and inflating the overall industry sales pace,” said Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power.
“In September, EVs accounted for 12.9% of new-vehicle retail sales, the highest ever, and well above the 8.5% recorded a year earlier. Now that the federal EV credit has expired, the industry is dealing with the consequences of those accelerated purchases. In October, EVs represent just 5.2% of new-vehicle retail sales. On a volume basis, EVs account for 1.0 million of the 1.2 million-unit decline in the industry sales pace compared with a month ago,” said King.
Main Forecast Details
Electrification Viewpoints
“The automotive industry is experiencing a significant re-calibration in the electric vehicle segment in the first month following the expiration of the federal tax credits. October EV market share declined to 5.2% month-to-date, less than half of September’s 12.9%, signaling a notable shift in consumer demand and market dynamics,” said Tyson Jominy, senior vice president of data & analytics at J.D. Power.
Global Sales Outlook is Murky
“September global light-vehicle sales increased 6.9% year over year to 8.1 million units, as key regions delivered year-over-year growth. The selling rate for September finished at 94.5 million units, down from an upwardly revised 95.4 million units in August,” said David Oakley, manager, Americas vehicle sales forecasts at GlobalData.
*AutoInformed on
**GlobalData
GlobalData says that “4000 of the world’s largest companies, including over 70% of FTSE 100 and 60% of Fortune 100 companies, make more timely and better business decisions thanks to GlobalData’s unique data, expert analysis, and innovative solutions, all in one platform. GlobalData’s mission is to help our clients decode the future to be more successful and innovative across a range of industries, including the healthcare, consumer, retail, financial, technology and professional services sectors.” J.D. Power is also part of GlobalData. Inquiries at: customersuccess.automotive@globaldata.com.
About Ken Zino
Ken Zino, editor and publisher of AutoInformed, is a versatile auto industry participant with global experience spanning decades in print and broadcast journalism, as well as social media. He has automobile testing, marketing, public relations and communications experience. He is past president of The International Motor Press Assn, the Detroit Press Club, founding member and first President of the Automotive Press Assn. He is a member of APA, IMPA and the Midwest Automotive Press Assn. He also brings an historical perspective while citing their contemporary relevance of the work of legendary auto writers such as Ken Purdy, Jim Dunne or Jerry Flint, or writers such as Red Smith, Mark Twain, Thomas Jefferson – all to bring perspective to a chaotic automotive universe. Above all, decades after he first drove a car, Zino still revels in the sound of the exhaust as the throttle is blipped during a downshift and the driver’s rush that occurs when the entry, apex and exit points of a turn are smoothly and swiftly crossed. It’s the beginning of a perfect lap. AutoInformed has an editorial philosophy that loves transportation machines of all kinds while promoting critical thinking about the future use of cars and trucks. Zino builds AutoInformed from his background in automotive journalism starting at Hearst Publishing in New York City on Motor and MotorTech Magazines and car testing where he reviewed hundreds of vehicles in his decade-long stint as the Detroit Bureau Chief of Road & Track magazine. Zino has also worked in Europe, and Asia – now the largest automotive market in the world with China at its center.