Fossil Fuel Phase Out or Cop Out at COP28?

Nations at the COP28 United Nations Climate Conference in Dubai approved this week a roadmap for “transitioning away from fossil fuels,” a first for a UN conference. However, the agreement is without any apparent way to enforce it. Worse, in the view of the many, many critics of the United Nations actions or lack thereof on planet-killing Climate Change, it did not clearly call for an end of using oil, coal and gas, which are the root of the problem.

The latest edition of the annual UN climate conference had been running in Dubai, the largest city in the United Arab Emirates, since 30 November. UAE of course is a major producer of fossil fuels and used the conference lobbying among attending countries to further its own self-interests, according to critics. Clearly we need to do better, much better.

UN chief António Guterres defensively said that the mention of the world’s leading contributor to climate change comes after many years in which the discussion of this issue was blocked. He said that the era of fossil fuels must end with justice and equity. “COP28 occurred at a decisive moment in the fight against the climate crisis – a moment that demands maximum ambition both in the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and climate justice. The issues of the energy transition and the future of fossil fuels were front and center,” Guterres claimed.

“The Global Stock take clearly reaffirmed the imperative of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees, which requires drastic reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions in this decade. In addition, for the first time, the outcome recognizes the need to transition away from fossil fuels – after many years in which the discussion of this issue was blocked.”

“Science tells us that limiting global heating to 1.5 degrees will be impossible without the phase out of all fossil fuels on a timeframe consistent with this limit (1.5 degrees). This has been recognized by a growing and diverse coalition of countries. To those who opposed a clear reference to a phase out of fossil fuels in the COP28 text, I want to say that a fossil fuel phase out is inevitable whether they like it or not. Let’s hope it doesn’t come too late,” Guterres said.

Timelines, pathways and targets will differ for countries at different levels of development, AutoInformed acknowledges. Nonetheless all actions must be consistent with achieving global net zero by 2050 and preserving the 1.5 degree goal.

The UN Version of What Happened at COP28

  1. The loss and damage fund designed to support climate-vulnerable developing countries was brought to life on the first day of the COP.Countries have pledged hundreds of millions of dollars so far for the fund;
  2. Commitments of worth $3.5 billion to replenish the resources of the Green Climate Fund;
  3. New announcements totaling over $150 million for the Least Developed Countries Fund (LDC) and Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF)
  4. An increase of $9 billion annually by the World Bank to finance climate-related projects (2024 and 2025);
  5. Nearly 120 countries backed COP28 UAE Climate and Health Declaration to accelerate actions to protect people’s health from growing climate impacts;
  6. Over 130 countries have signed up to COP28 UAE Declaration on Agriculture, Food, and Climate to support food security while combatting climate change; and
  7. Global Cooling Pledge has been endorsed by 66 countries to reduce cooling related emissions by 68% from today.

McKinsey Consultancy

AutoInformed notes this from the McKinsey Consultancy Sustainability Blog:

“As we have seen above, some decarbonization levers can offer direct cost savings, in terms of both capital and operating expenditures.

“Many initiatives may also enable companies to avoid the financial impact of potential carbon taxes or other climate regulations. An increasing number of countries are committing to net-zero pledges, including 19 members of the G-20 that together account for more than 90 percent of global GDP and more than 80 percent of global CO2 emissions. As a result, carbon prices and emissions regulations – both current and future – are an important consideration for the operational cost of decarbonization levers and other investments.

“Companies are already moving to reduce their exposure to potential changes in policy. More than a third of consumer companies have begun experimenting with, or plan to adopt, internal carbon pricing to gauge how their emissions could affect their bottom line and investment choices,” McKinsey said.

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