EPA 2031 CAFE – EVs, PHEVs, Hybrids Will Grow

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New EPA Light Vehicle Emissions standards are now final through model year 2031.* There are multiple ways a global automaker can meet the standards and avoid fines. Key here will be the flexible development and manufacturing of powertrain technologies to meet compliance and avoid non-compliance penalties. The standard means a maker will pay $17.00 per tenth of a mile per gallon under the requirement.

For those  inhabiting the Trump Washington swamp with rabid misinformation fever, he did not decrease the standards as promised. Incremental increases were slowed down. The Biden Administration basically went back to the sharp CAFE increases that occurred under the Obama Administration. Simply put, CAFE will increase because of  significant fines for non-compliance now in place.

The final rule establishes standards that would require an industry-wide fleet average of ~50.4 miles per gallon (mpg) in MY 2031 for passenger cars and light trucks, and an industry fleet-wide average for HDPUVs of roughly 2.851 gallons per 100 miles in MY 2035 (35 mpg – AutoCrat).

The final CAFE standards increase at a rate of 2% per year for passenger cars in MYs 2027-31 and 2% per year for light trucks in model years 2029-31. The final HDPUV fuel efficiency standards increase at a rate of 10% per year in MYs 2030-2032 and 8% per year in MYs 2033-2035.

Moreover and potentially planet saving – pure EVs, PHEVs and hybrids will continue to grow and displace traditional internal combustion engines. In yet another twist, another way to improve vehicle efficiency is reducing vehicle mass. So yes, vehicles sold in America are going on a diet.

This, of course, will all be fought out in an extremely competitive market place. So going forward you pays your money to make a choice from a bewildering variety of vehicles. It is possible, nay plausible, that vehicles with internal combustion engines will be priced out of the market as hybrid and EV prices decline.

*AutoInformed on

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