Click to enlarge.
New-vehicle sales in January increased compared to year-ago levels, but initial results indicate that market volume likely came in slightly below the forecast, Cox Automotive** said today. The original Cox Automotive forecast* called for year-over-year growth of 5.2% at 15.8 million, but early estimates “suggest the increase was closer to 4%,” at 15.6. Some automakers posted record January volume and others saw declines from January 2024 levels.
“Our market continues to be one of diverging stories,” said Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke. “While the macro view is one of growth, ‘actual experience may vary.’ January is typically a low-volume sales month, and there were no shortages of sales challenges last month – from extreme cold over much of the market to major fire disruptions in Southern California. Consumer confidence also declined more than expected in January and was lower than in January 2024, the first yearly decline since September. All factors considered, the positive sales performance in January was a good sign for the market,” Smoke said.
Executive Summary
- December was particularly strong, and the January sales pace of near 15.6 million, slightly below the forecast of 15.8 million, was the strongest since 2021.
- How long will the current momentum hold? Cox Automotive is optimistic in the near term.
- New-vehicle inventory is relatively healthy, and major automakers have turned up the sales incentives.
- More importantly, shoppers are likely being influenced by a real concern that prices in the future will be higher, not lower – red lights are flashing with all the talk of higher tariffs, the slashing of government-backed EV incentives, and the potential return of inflation.
- For in-market buyers, there is little incentive to wait and find out.
- Cox Automotive is forecasting total new-vehicle sales in 2025 to reach 16.3 million, up from 16 million in 2024. Another year of slow growth despite an uncertain road ahead.
*AutoInformed on
**Cox Automotive
Cox Automotive says it is the world’s largest automotive services and technology provider. Fueled by the largest breadth of first-party data fed by 2.3 billion online interactions a year, Cox Automotive tailors leading solutions for car shoppers, automakers, dealers, retailers, lenders, and fleet owners. The company has 25,000-plus employees on five continents and a family of trusted brands that includes Autotrader®, Dealertrack®, Kelley Blue Book®, Manheim®, NextGear Capital™, and vAuto®. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately owned, Atlanta-based company with $22 billion in annual revenue.
Cox Automotive Alters January Forecast Sales Down
Click to enlarge.
New-vehicle sales in January increased compared to year-ago levels, but initial results indicate that market volume likely came in slightly below the forecast, Cox Automotive** said today. The original Cox Automotive forecast* called for year-over-year growth of 5.2% at 15.8 million, but early estimates “suggest the increase was closer to 4%,” at 15.6. Some automakers posted record January volume and others saw declines from January 2024 levels.
“Our market continues to be one of diverging stories,” said Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke. “While the macro view is one of growth, ‘actual experience may vary.’ January is typically a low-volume sales month, and there were no shortages of sales challenges last month – from extreme cold over much of the market to major fire disruptions in Southern California. Consumer confidence also declined more than expected in January and was lower than in January 2024, the first yearly decline since September. All factors considered, the positive sales performance in January was a good sign for the market,” Smoke said.
Executive Summary
*AutoInformed on
**Cox Automotive
Cox Automotive says it is the world’s largest automotive services and technology provider. Fueled by the largest breadth of first-party data fed by 2.3 billion online interactions a year, Cox Automotive tailors leading solutions for car shoppers, automakers, dealers, retailers, lenders, and fleet owners. The company has 25,000-plus employees on five continents and a family of trusted brands that includes Autotrader®, Dealertrack®, Kelley Blue Book®, Manheim®, NextGear Capital™, and vAuto®. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately owned, Atlanta-based company with $22 billion in annual revenue.