Click to enlarge.
Total new-vehicle sales for February 2026, including retail and non-retail transactions, are forecast to reach to reach 1,183,000, a 3.8% decrease year-over-year, according to a joint analysis from J.D. Power* and GlobalData** as the Trump Slump continues. February 2026 has 24 selling days, equal to February 2025. The negative industry trend of affordability continues to grow.
“The February sales pace shows a modest improvement over January, but will be down from a year ago, with retail sales projected to decline 4.6%. As in January, performance is being shaped by depressed electric vehicle (EV) retail demand. EVs are expected to account for just 6.6% of retail sales, down 1.8 percentage points from a year ago, while elevated transaction prices continue to weigh on volumes through ongoing affordability pressure,” said Thomas King, president of OEM solutions at JD Power.
“Despite the relatively slow start to the year, acceleration in the sales pace is expected over the balance of 2026, starting with March, which is traditionally a high-volume sales month with elevated promotional activity from manufacturers,” said King.
The February 2026 U.S. Sales Forecast Details per J.D. Power
- Average retail transaction prices are expected to rise 2.7% to $46,303 from a year ago, with non-EV prices increasing 3.0% to $46,097 and EV prices rising 2.6% to $46,528. The combination of reduced EV subsidies, higher EV pricing and more modest discounting across the industry continues to influence shopper behavior and segment mix.
- The average manufacturer’s incentive spend per vehicle is on track to reach $3,293, which is $63 higher than a year ago. However, the changes in average discounts are heavily influenced by the decline in EV sales. Discounts on EVs are expected to average $10,356 in February, down $1,664 compared with February 2025. Meanwhile, discounts on non-EVs are projected at $3,085, an increase of $346 from last year. As a percentage of MSRP, discounts on non-EVs are at 6.0% in February, up 0.6ppts from a year ago.
- “Affordability pressure remains significant, with the average monthly finance payment reaching $811, up $32 from a year ago. In response, more consumers are turning to 84-month loan terms, which are expected to account for 12.7% of financed sales this month compared to 7.7% a year ago.
- “Easing interest rates and strong used-vehicle values are providing some relief to buyers facing elevated monthly payments. The average interest rate for new-vehicle loans in February is 6.72%, a decrease of 31 basis points from a year ago.
- “The average used-vehicle price is $29,488, up $448 from a year ago. This reflects the continued low supply of recent model-year used vehicles due to lower new-vehicle production during the pandemic. The ongoing strength of used-vehicle prices continues to be good news for new-vehicle buyers with a trade-in, with average trade-in equity in February at $7,013, essentially flat from a year ago. However, the number of new-vehicle buyers with negative equity on their trade-in is expected to reach 31.5% – an increase of 3.4 percentage points from February 2025.
- “Regarding total consumer spending on new vehicles, the elevated transaction prices in February aren’t quite enough to offset the lower sales pace, with consumers on track to spend nearly $41.3 billion on new vehicles this month – 2.4% lower than a year ago.” said King.
- For retailers, profit per unit, which includes vehicle gross plus finance and insurance income, is expected to be $2,524, up $83 from February 2025 and up $160 from January 2026. Total aggregate retailer profit from new-vehicle sales for this month is projected to be $2.3 billion, down 1.8% from last year.
“Looking ahead, multiple automakers have publicly stated their intent to increase their sales volume in 2026. However, given total new vehicle sales this year are expected to be similar to a year ago, and few, if any automakers are planning for a sales contraction, competitive intensity can be expected to rise in the coming months,” said King
Electrification Outlook
“As noted above, EV share is holding in the mid-6% range, nearly two points below last year and well off the high driven by changes in U.S. policy in Q3 2025,” said Tyson Jominy, senior vice president of OEM customer success at JD Power.
“The pullback is concentrated in the mass market, where EV share contracted to 1.9% from 4.0% a year ago. In contrast, EVs represent over 26.4% of premium sales year to date – a figure which includes direct-to-consumer brands – and only 5 percentage points below last year’s pace,” said Jominy.
Global Sales Outlook
“January global light-vehicle sales are estimated to have decreased 1.9% year over year to 6.6 million units. Most major markets saw declines, but a particularly notable contraction in China meant that the global industry was unlikely to match year-ago levels. The selling rate for January was estimated at 80.8 million units, down from 96.4 million units in December,” said David Oakley, manager, Americas vehicle sales forecasts at GlobalData.
“Sales in China decreased 13.4% year over year in January, as the effects of the government’s move to tighten access to subsidies for electrified vehicles were apparent, with some lower-cost models now ineligible for the scheme. In addition, there is now a 5% tax imposed on EVs and plug-in hybrids, likely further cooling demand. Meanwhile, European countries also saw declines in January, with the key German market impacted by rising unemployment and a sluggish economic outlook.
“February sales are expected to decrease 5.5% from February 2025. Once again, China is likely to be a major contributor to the year over year loss, with last year’s robust sales now providing a high base effect, an issue that could be a feature of 2026. On the other hand, India is likely to see strong growth in February, as tax reductions implemented in September 2025 continue to generate year over year gains. The global selling rate is expected to reach 89.3 million units in February, up slightly from a rate of 89.2 million units in February 2025.
“Our forecast for total global sales in 2026 stands at 93.5 million units, up 1.9% year over year. Our Chinese sales outlook has been revised down by around 300,000 units based on weaker momentum in the new year. Although China should still see some growth in 2026, developing markets such as India will also contribute significantly to the global expansion in light-vehicle sales this year, while most mature markets are expected to see a flat outcome or only modest gains,” said Oakley.
*AutoInformed on
**GlobalData
GlobalData says that “4000 of the world’s largest companies, including over 70% of FTSE 100 and 60% of Fortune 100 companies, make more timely and better business decisions thanks to GlobalData’s unique data, expert analysis, and innovative solutions, all in one platform. GlobalData’s mission is to help our clients decode the future to be more successful and innovative across a range of industries, including the healthcare, consumer, retail, financial, technology and professional services sectors.” J.D. Power is also part of GlobalData. Inquiries at: customersuccess.automotive@globaldata.com.
About Ken Zino
Ken Zino, editor and publisher of AutoInformed, is a versatile auto industry participant with global experience spanning decades in print and broadcast journalism, as well as social media. He has automobile testing, marketing, public relations and communications experience. He is past president of The International Motor Press Assn, the Detroit Press Club, founding member and first President of the Automotive Press Assn. He is a member of APA, IMPA and the Midwest Automotive Press Assn.
He also brings an historical perspective while citing their contemporary relevance of the work of legendary auto writers such as Ken Purdy, Jim Dunne or Jerry Flint, or writers such as Red Smith, Mark Twain, Thomas Jefferson – all to bring perspective to a chaotic automotive universe.
Above all, decades after he first drove a car, Zino still revels in the sound of the exhaust as the throttle is blipped during a downshift and the driver’s rush that occurs when the entry, apex and exit points of a turn are smoothly and swiftly crossed. It’s the beginning of a perfect lap.
AutoInformed has an editorial philosophy that loves transportation machines of all kinds while promoting critical thinking about the future use of cars and trucks.
Zino builds AutoInformed from his background in automotive journalism starting at Hearst Publishing in New York City on Motor and MotorTech Magazines and car testing where he reviewed hundreds of vehicles in his decade-long stint as the Detroit Bureau Chief of Road & Track magazine. Zino has also worked in Europe, and Asia – now the largest automotive market in the world with China at its center.
February 2026 U.S. Vehicle Sales Forecast is Down Again
Click to enlarge.
Total new-vehicle sales for February 2026, including retail and non-retail transactions, are forecast to reach to reach 1,183,000, a 3.8% decrease year-over-year, according to a joint analysis from J.D. Power* and GlobalData** as the Trump Slump continues. February 2026 has 24 selling days, equal to February 2025. The negative industry trend of affordability continues to grow.
“The February sales pace shows a modest improvement over January, but will be down from a year ago, with retail sales projected to decline 4.6%. As in January, performance is being shaped by depressed electric vehicle (EV) retail demand. EVs are expected to account for just 6.6% of retail sales, down 1.8 percentage points from a year ago, while elevated transaction prices continue to weigh on volumes through ongoing affordability pressure,” said Thomas King, president of OEM solutions at JD Power.
“Despite the relatively slow start to the year, acceleration in the sales pace is expected over the balance of 2026, starting with March, which is traditionally a high-volume sales month with elevated promotional activity from manufacturers,” said King.
The February 2026 U.S. Sales Forecast Details per J.D. Power
“Looking ahead, multiple automakers have publicly stated their intent to increase their sales volume in 2026. However, given total new vehicle sales this year are expected to be similar to a year ago, and few, if any automakers are planning for a sales contraction, competitive intensity can be expected to rise in the coming months,” said King
Electrification Outlook
“As noted above, EV share is holding in the mid-6% range, nearly two points below last year and well off the high driven by changes in U.S. policy in Q3 2025,” said Tyson Jominy, senior vice president of OEM customer success at JD Power.
“The pullback is concentrated in the mass market, where EV share contracted to 1.9% from 4.0% a year ago. In contrast, EVs represent over 26.4% of premium sales year to date – a figure which includes direct-to-consumer brands – and only 5 percentage points below last year’s pace,” said Jominy.
Global Sales Outlook
“January global light-vehicle sales are estimated to have decreased 1.9% year over year to 6.6 million units. Most major markets saw declines, but a particularly notable contraction in China meant that the global industry was unlikely to match year-ago levels. The selling rate for January was estimated at 80.8 million units, down from 96.4 million units in December,” said David Oakley, manager, Americas vehicle sales forecasts at GlobalData.
“Sales in China decreased 13.4% year over year in January, as the effects of the government’s move to tighten access to subsidies for electrified vehicles were apparent, with some lower-cost models now ineligible for the scheme. In addition, there is now a 5% tax imposed on EVs and plug-in hybrids, likely further cooling demand. Meanwhile, European countries also saw declines in January, with the key German market impacted by rising unemployment and a sluggish economic outlook.
“February sales are expected to decrease 5.5% from February 2025. Once again, China is likely to be a major contributor to the year over year loss, with last year’s robust sales now providing a high base effect, an issue that could be a feature of 2026. On the other hand, India is likely to see strong growth in February, as tax reductions implemented in September 2025 continue to generate year over year gains. The global selling rate is expected to reach 89.3 million units in February, up slightly from a rate of 89.2 million units in February 2025.
“Our forecast for total global sales in 2026 stands at 93.5 million units, up 1.9% year over year. Our Chinese sales outlook has been revised down by around 300,000 units based on weaker momentum in the new year. Although China should still see some growth in 2026, developing markets such as India will also contribute significantly to the global expansion in light-vehicle sales this year, while most mature markets are expected to see a flat outcome or only modest gains,” said Oakley.
*AutoInformed on
**GlobalData
GlobalData says that “4000 of the world’s largest companies, including over 70% of FTSE 100 and 60% of Fortune 100 companies, make more timely and better business decisions thanks to GlobalData’s unique data, expert analysis, and innovative solutions, all in one platform. GlobalData’s mission is to help our clients decode the future to be more successful and innovative across a range of industries, including the healthcare, consumer, retail, financial, technology and professional services sectors.” J.D. Power is also part of GlobalData. Inquiries at: customersuccess.automotive@globaldata.com.
About Ken Zino
Ken Zino, editor and publisher of AutoInformed, is a versatile auto industry participant with global experience spanning decades in print and broadcast journalism, as well as social media. He has automobile testing, marketing, public relations and communications experience. He is past president of The International Motor Press Assn, the Detroit Press Club, founding member and first President of the Automotive Press Assn. He is a member of APA, IMPA and the Midwest Automotive Press Assn. He also brings an historical perspective while citing their contemporary relevance of the work of legendary auto writers such as Ken Purdy, Jim Dunne or Jerry Flint, or writers such as Red Smith, Mark Twain, Thomas Jefferson – all to bring perspective to a chaotic automotive universe. Above all, decades after he first drove a car, Zino still revels in the sound of the exhaust as the throttle is blipped during a downshift and the driver’s rush that occurs when the entry, apex and exit points of a turn are smoothly and swiftly crossed. It’s the beginning of a perfect lap. AutoInformed has an editorial philosophy that loves transportation machines of all kinds while promoting critical thinking about the future use of cars and trucks. Zino builds AutoInformed from his background in automotive journalism starting at Hearst Publishing in New York City on Motor and MotorTech Magazines and car testing where he reviewed hundreds of vehicles in his decade-long stint as the Detroit Bureau Chief of Road & Track magazine. Zino has also worked in Europe, and Asia – now the largest automotive market in the world with China at its center.