Click to enlarge.
November’s new-vehicle sales, when posted next week, are expected to fall in both volume and pace from last year’s levels. The November new-vehicle sales pace, or seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), is forecast today by Cox Automotive to reach 15.7 million. This is up slightly from October’s 15.3 million pace, but significantly down from last year’s 16.5 million level. Through October, the monthly SAAR has averaged 16.2 million.*
“The new-vehicle sales pace had been expected to slow in the fourth quarter, and that’s what we are seeing,” said Cox Automotive Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough. “The headwinds from higher prices and fewer government subsidies for electric vehicles are finally slowing the market after a surprisingly strong previous six months.**
“Sales began surging in the spring as buyers rushed to market to beat expected higher prices in the wake of announced tariffs. Now, with more tariffed products replacing existing non-tariffed inventory, prices are drifting higher, leading to slower sales which may last through the remainder of the year and into next year,” said Chesbrough.
EV Market Changes Affecting Overall New-Vehicle Sales, Pricing
October marked a sharp reversal for the electric vehicle (EV) market as the expiration of the federal EV tax credit cooled demand after three months of accelerated sales, according to Cox Automotive’s latest EV Market Monitor.
“Sales of EVs and PHEVs accelerated in the wake of the Big Beautiful Bill’s passage in early July as buyers rushed to market before the $7500 tax credits expired at the end of September,” Chesbrough said. “Q3 was the strongest quarter ever for EVs; however, Q4 is a different story. Sales of EVs and plug-in hybrids are now collapsing after tax credits expired.”
As expensive EV sales have declined sharply, Cox Automotive has reported lower market-wide new-vehicle sales and a decrease in the industry’s average transaction prices. Cox Automotive is expecting lower EV sales to persist as the market adjusts.
*AutoInformed on
**Cox Automotive
Cox Automotive says it is the world’s largest automotive services and technology provider. Fueled by the largest breadth of first-party data fed by 2.3 billion online interactions a year, Cox Automotive tailors leading solutions for car shoppers, automakers, dealers, retailers, lenders, and fleet owners. The company has 25,000-plus employees on five continents and a family of trusted brands that includes Autotrader®, Dealertrack®, Kelley Blue Book®, Manheim®, NextGear Capital™, and vAuto®. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately owned, Atlanta-based company with $22 billion in annual revenue.
About Ken Zino
Ken Zino, editor and publisher of AutoInformed, is a versatile auto industry participant with global experience spanning decades in print and broadcast journalism, as well as social media. He has automobile testing, marketing, public relations and communications experience. He is past president of The International Motor Press Assn, the Detroit Press Club, founding member and first President of the Automotive Press Assn. He is a member of APA, IMPA and the Midwest Automotive Press Assn.
He also brings an historical perspective while citing their contemporary relevance of the work of legendary auto writers such as Ken Purdy, Jim Dunne or Jerry Flint, or writers such as Red Smith, Mark Twain, Thomas Jefferson – all to bring perspective to a chaotic automotive universe.
Above all, decades after he first drove a car, Zino still revels in the sound of the exhaust as the throttle is blipped during a downshift and the driver’s rush that occurs when the entry, apex and exit points of a turn are smoothly and swiftly crossed. It’s the beginning of a perfect lap.
AutoInformed has an editorial philosophy that loves transportation machines of all kinds while promoting critical thinking about the future use of cars and trucks.
Zino builds AutoInformed from his background in automotive journalism starting at Hearst Publishing in New York City on Motor and MotorTech Magazines and car testing where he reviewed hundreds of vehicles in his decade-long stint as the Detroit Bureau Chief of Road & Track magazine. Zino has also worked in Europe, and Asia – now the largest automotive market in the world with China at its center.
U.S. November New Vehicle Sales Forecast Down
Click to enlarge.
November’s new-vehicle sales, when posted next week, are expected to fall in both volume and pace from last year’s levels. The November new-vehicle sales pace, or seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), is forecast today by Cox Automotive to reach 15.7 million. This is up slightly from October’s 15.3 million pace, but significantly down from last year’s 16.5 million level. Through October, the monthly SAAR has averaged 16.2 million.*
“The new-vehicle sales pace had been expected to slow in the fourth quarter, and that’s what we are seeing,” said Cox Automotive Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough. “The headwinds from higher prices and fewer government subsidies for electric vehicles are finally slowing the market after a surprisingly strong previous six months.**
“Sales began surging in the spring as buyers rushed to market to beat expected higher prices in the wake of announced tariffs. Now, with more tariffed products replacing existing non-tariffed inventory, prices are drifting higher, leading to slower sales which may last through the remainder of the year and into next year,” said Chesbrough.
EV Market Changes Affecting Overall New-Vehicle Sales, Pricing
October marked a sharp reversal for the electric vehicle (EV) market as the expiration of the federal EV tax credit cooled demand after three months of accelerated sales, according to Cox Automotive’s latest EV Market Monitor.
“Sales of EVs and PHEVs accelerated in the wake of the Big Beautiful Bill’s passage in early July as buyers rushed to market before the $7500 tax credits expired at the end of September,” Chesbrough said. “Q3 was the strongest quarter ever for EVs; however, Q4 is a different story. Sales of EVs and plug-in hybrids are now collapsing after tax credits expired.”
As expensive EV sales have declined sharply, Cox Automotive has reported lower market-wide new-vehicle sales and a decrease in the industry’s average transaction prices. Cox Automotive is expecting lower EV sales to persist as the market adjusts.
*AutoInformed on
**Cox Automotive
Cox Automotive says it is the world’s largest automotive services and technology provider. Fueled by the largest breadth of first-party data fed by 2.3 billion online interactions a year, Cox Automotive tailors leading solutions for car shoppers, automakers, dealers, retailers, lenders, and fleet owners. The company has 25,000-plus employees on five continents and a family of trusted brands that includes Autotrader®, Dealertrack®, Kelley Blue Book®, Manheim®, NextGear Capital™, and vAuto®. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately owned, Atlanta-based company with $22 billion in annual revenue.
About Ken Zino
Ken Zino, editor and publisher of AutoInformed, is a versatile auto industry participant with global experience spanning decades in print and broadcast journalism, as well as social media. He has automobile testing, marketing, public relations and communications experience. He is past president of The International Motor Press Assn, the Detroit Press Club, founding member and first President of the Automotive Press Assn. He is a member of APA, IMPA and the Midwest Automotive Press Assn. He also brings an historical perspective while citing their contemporary relevance of the work of legendary auto writers such as Ken Purdy, Jim Dunne or Jerry Flint, or writers such as Red Smith, Mark Twain, Thomas Jefferson – all to bring perspective to a chaotic automotive universe. Above all, decades after he first drove a car, Zino still revels in the sound of the exhaust as the throttle is blipped during a downshift and the driver’s rush that occurs when the entry, apex and exit points of a turn are smoothly and swiftly crossed. It’s the beginning of a perfect lap. AutoInformed has an editorial philosophy that loves transportation machines of all kinds while promoting critical thinking about the future use of cars and trucks. Zino builds AutoInformed from his background in automotive journalism starting at Hearst Publishing in New York City on Motor and MotorTech Magazines and car testing where he reviewed hundreds of vehicles in his decade-long stint as the Detroit Bureau Chief of Road & Track magazine. Zino has also worked in Europe, and Asia – now the largest automotive market in the world with China at its center.