Click for more GlobalData.
US light vehicle (LV) sales grew by 19.7% year-on-year (YoY) in September, to 1.34 million units, according to the latest analysis by the respected GlobalData consultancy.* The UAW Big Three Strike that began halfway through September has thus far had little apparent effect. However, YoY comparisons are supercharged because of a low base of weak September 2022 sales. Ironically, Labor Day sales appears to bolstered sales. (AutoInformed: Labor Day – UAW Struggles Are Key to The American Dream)
“Recent headlines around the US auto industry have been focused on the UAW strike, but that impact will be delayed as the targeted OEMs continue to sell existing inventory. While one or two specific models are likely already seeing a negative effect on sales due to low days’ supply, on a wider scale the strikes may have spurred activity in September by nudging customers to make purchases before stocks run out. Still, sales were robust even among non-union OEMs, suggesting that longer-term trends around improved vehicle availability and a strong contribution from Premium brands – especially Tesla – also played a significant role,” said David Oakley, Manager, Americas Sales Forecasts, GlobalData.
“The ongoing duration of the strike and the expected increased severity are likely to cut into inventory and demand as early as October. However, levels are holding thus far, given the limited number of affected plants. For September, vehicle days’ supply is projected to hold in the 37-39 day range, which is just below where it was in August. Volume is expected to be at 1.9 million units as October starts, Global Data said.
“While there has been little impact to vehicle demand from the UAW strike, evident by September outperforming expectations, risks to the Detroit Three volume and topline increase as the strike continues. We are holding our forecast for 2023 at 15.3 million units, despite the strong performance, given the high level of uncertainty. While 2024 could benefit from volume lost in 2023, we are currently holding the forecast at 16.0 million units as well.”
Global Data Analysis
- GM was again the market leader with 225,000 units, a market share of 16.8%.
- Toyota Group was the closest it has been to GM in terms of volume since October 2022, ~ 21,000 units behind. At 15.2%, Toyota Group’s market share was its highest in 11 months.
- Ford Group was the third best-selling OEM in September with a modest market share of 11.9%.
- Tesla Model Y is estimated to have led the market in September for the first time ever, with sales of 39,500 units, ahead of the Toyota RAV4 on 38,100 units.
- The Ford F-150, normally the market-leading model, dropped to third place with sales of just under 37,000 units, with its lowest market share in 12 months.
- Compact Non-Premium SUV set a new record high market share in September at 20.5%, beating the previous best that was set in July.
- Midsize Non-Premium SUV was second at 15.7%.
- Large Pickup was third at 13.0%.
Global Outlook
“The global LV selling rate reached 99.7 million units in August and was at the highest monthly level since August 2018. The automotive market has consistently outperformed expectations throughout 2023 so far and is expected to remain around the 90 million unit selling rate again in September, leading to an increase in the forecast from 86.8 million units to 87.9 million units. The wildcards for the remainder of 2023 are set to be the US market – which may be influenced by the ongoing UAW strike – and China, with a price war that is attracting more consumers into the new-vehicle market but is negatively affecting OEM margins. The lift in the forecast for 2023 has also spilled into 2024, with the outlook being increased to 91.6 million units from 90.2 million units,” according to GlobalData.
*GlobalData says that “4000 of the world’s largest companies, including over 70% of FTSE 100 and 60% of Fortune 100 companies, make more timely and better business decisions thanks to GlobalData’s unique data, expert analysis and innovative solutions, all in one platform. GlobalData’s mission is to help our clients decode the future to be more successful and innovative across a range of industries, including the healthcare, consumer, retail, financial, technology and professional services sectors.” J.D. Power is also part of GlobalData. Inquiries at: customersuccess.automotive@globaldata.com.
About Ken Zino
Ken Zino, editor and publisher of AutoInformed, is a versatile auto industry participant with global experience spanning decades in print and broadcast journalism, as well as social media. He has automobile testing, marketing, public relations and communications experience. He is past president of The International Motor Press Assn, the Detroit Press Club, founding member and first President of the Automotive Press Assn. He is a member of APA, IMPA and the Midwest Automotive Press Assn.
He also brings an historical perspective while citing their contemporary relevance of the work of legendary auto writers such as Ken Purdy, Jim Dunne or Jerry Flint, or writers such as Red Smith, Mark Twain, Thomas Jefferson – all to bring perspective to a chaotic automotive universe.
Above all, decades after he first drove a car, Zino still revels in the sound of the exhaust as the throttle is blipped during a downshift and the driver’s rush that occurs when the entry, apex and exit points of a turn are smoothly and swiftly crossed. It’s the beginning of a perfect lap.
AutoInformed has an editorial philosophy that loves transportation machines of all kinds while promoting critical thinking about the future use of cars and trucks.
Zino builds AutoInformed from his background in automotive journalism starting at Hearst Publishing in New York City on Motor and MotorTech Magazines and car testing where he reviewed hundreds of vehicles in his decade-long stint as the Detroit Bureau Chief of Road & Track magazine. Zino has also worked in Europe, and Asia – now the largest automotive market in the world with China at its center.
What Strike? September US Vehicle Market Grows Sharply
Click for more GlobalData.
US light vehicle (LV) sales grew by 19.7% year-on-year (YoY) in September, to 1.34 million units, according to the latest analysis by the respected GlobalData consultancy.* The UAW Big Three Strike that began halfway through September has thus far had little apparent effect. However, YoY comparisons are supercharged because of a low base of weak September 2022 sales. Ironically, Labor Day sales appears to bolstered sales. (AutoInformed: Labor Day – UAW Struggles Are Key to The American Dream)
“Recent headlines around the US auto industry have been focused on the UAW strike, but that impact will be delayed as the targeted OEMs continue to sell existing inventory. While one or two specific models are likely already seeing a negative effect on sales due to low days’ supply, on a wider scale the strikes may have spurred activity in September by nudging customers to make purchases before stocks run out. Still, sales were robust even among non-union OEMs, suggesting that longer-term trends around improved vehicle availability and a strong contribution from Premium brands – especially Tesla – also played a significant role,” said David Oakley, Manager, Americas Sales Forecasts, GlobalData.
“The ongoing duration of the strike and the expected increased severity are likely to cut into inventory and demand as early as October. However, levels are holding thus far, given the limited number of affected plants. For September, vehicle days’ supply is projected to hold in the 37-39 day range, which is just below where it was in August. Volume is expected to be at 1.9 million units as October starts, Global Data said.
“While there has been little impact to vehicle demand from the UAW strike, evident by September outperforming expectations, risks to the Detroit Three volume and topline increase as the strike continues. We are holding our forecast for 2023 at 15.3 million units, despite the strong performance, given the high level of uncertainty. While 2024 could benefit from volume lost in 2023, we are currently holding the forecast at 16.0 million units as well.”
Global Data Analysis
Global Outlook
“The global LV selling rate reached 99.7 million units in August and was at the highest monthly level since August 2018. The automotive market has consistently outperformed expectations throughout 2023 so far and is expected to remain around the 90 million unit selling rate again in September, leading to an increase in the forecast from 86.8 million units to 87.9 million units. The wildcards for the remainder of 2023 are set to be the US market – which may be influenced by the ongoing UAW strike – and China, with a price war that is attracting more consumers into the new-vehicle market but is negatively affecting OEM margins. The lift in the forecast for 2023 has also spilled into 2024, with the outlook being increased to 91.6 million units from 90.2 million units,” according to GlobalData.
*GlobalData says that “4000 of the world’s largest companies, including over 70% of FTSE 100 and 60% of Fortune 100 companies, make more timely and better business decisions thanks to GlobalData’s unique data, expert analysis and innovative solutions, all in one platform. GlobalData’s mission is to help our clients decode the future to be more successful and innovative across a range of industries, including the healthcare, consumer, retail, financial, technology and professional services sectors.” J.D. Power is also part of GlobalData. Inquiries at: customersuccess.automotive@globaldata.com.
About Ken Zino
Ken Zino, editor and publisher of AutoInformed, is a versatile auto industry participant with global experience spanning decades in print and broadcast journalism, as well as social media. He has automobile testing, marketing, public relations and communications experience. He is past president of The International Motor Press Assn, the Detroit Press Club, founding member and first President of the Automotive Press Assn. He is a member of APA, IMPA and the Midwest Automotive Press Assn. He also brings an historical perspective while citing their contemporary relevance of the work of legendary auto writers such as Ken Purdy, Jim Dunne or Jerry Flint, or writers such as Red Smith, Mark Twain, Thomas Jefferson – all to bring perspective to a chaotic automotive universe. Above all, decades after he first drove a car, Zino still revels in the sound of the exhaust as the throttle is blipped during a downshift and the driver’s rush that occurs when the entry, apex and exit points of a turn are smoothly and swiftly crossed. It’s the beginning of a perfect lap. AutoInformed has an editorial philosophy that loves transportation machines of all kinds while promoting critical thinking about the future use of cars and trucks. Zino builds AutoInformed from his background in automotive journalism starting at Hearst Publishing in New York City on Motor and MotorTech Magazines and car testing where he reviewed hundreds of vehicles in his decade-long stint as the Detroit Bureau Chief of Road & Track magazine. Zino has also worked in Europe, and Asia – now the largest automotive market in the world with China at its center.