Click to enlarge.
Total new-vehicle sales for January 2026, including retail and non-retail transactions, are forecast to reach 1,118,700, a 2.7% decrease year-over-year, according to a joint analysis from J.D. Power* and GlobalData.** January 2026 has 26 selling days, one more than January 2025. Comparing the same sales volume without adjusting for the number of selling days translates to an increase of 1.2% from 2025. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for Retail new-vehicle sales is expected to be 12.7 million units, down 500,000 from January 2025.
“January is historically the lowest volume sales month of the year and is also historically the least indicative of full-year sales performance. Nevertheless, January opens 2026 with a modest performance with retail sales expected to increase by 1317 units compared to a year ago,” said Thomas King, president of OEM solutions at J.D. Power.
“As with every January, winter storms have the potential to create some disruption to sales patterns, but the key factors in assessing January’s performance are the co-mingling of lower EV sales, higher Incentives on internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles and ongoing profit pressure from tariffs,” said King.
The January U.S. Sales Forecast Details
- Fleet sales are expected to total 210,247 units in January, up 1.9% from January 2025.
- Fleet volume is expected to account for 18.8% of total light-vehicle sales, up 0.9 percentage points from a year ago.
- Internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles are projected to account for 77.7% of new-vehicle retail sales, an increase of 2.7 percentage points from a year ago.
- Plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV) are on pace to make up 0.9% of sales, down 1.3 percentage points from January 2025, while electric vehicles (EV) are expected to account for 6.6% of sales, down 2.9 percentage points, and hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) are expected to account for 14.7% of new-vehicle retail sales, up 1.4 percentage points.
- U.S. final assembly vehicles are expected to make up 54.1% of sales in January, up 3.2 percentage points from a year ago.
- Trucks/SUVs are on pace to account for 83.1% of new-vehicle retail sales, up 1.5 percentage point from January 2025.
- Retail inventory levels are currently at 2.12 million units, a 1.4% decrease from January 2025.
- The industry’s inventory days of supply is 59 days in January, up from 2 days from a year ago.
- The average new-vehicle retail transaction price in January is expected to reach $45,880,up $512 from January 2025.
- Transaction price as a percentage of MSRP was down 0.2 percentage points from a year ago at 89.5%.
- Retail buyers are on pace to spend $39.7 billion on new vehicles, up $0.5 billion from January 2025.
- Average incentive spending per unit in January is expected to reach $3192, up $25 from January 2025. Incentive spending as a percentage of the average MSRP is expected to decrease to 6.2%, flat from January 2025.
- Average incentive spending per unit on trucks/SUVs in January is expected to be $3399, up $104 from a year ago, while the average spending on cars is expected to be $2596, up $36 from a year ago.
- Leasing is expected to account for 21.7% of sales this month, down 2.1 percentage points from a year ago.
- The average time a new vehicle remains in the dealer’s possession before sale is expected to be 57 days in January, flat from a year ago.
- 25.1% of vehicles sold in less than 10 days in January, down 4.9 percentage points from a year ago.
- Average monthly finance payments are on pace to be $760, up $24 from January 2025.
- The average interest rate for new-vehicle loans is expected to be 6.29%, down 0.48 percentage points from a year ago.
- So far in January, average used-vehicle retail prices are $28,550, up $490 from a year ago. Trade-in equity is trending towards $8091, which is up $293 from a year ago.
- 27.3% of trade-ins are expected to carry negative equity this month—an increase of 2.4 percentage points from January 2025.
- Finance loans with terms greater than or equal to 84 months are expected to reach 11.7% of finance sales this month, up 1.9 percentage points from January 2025.
Electric Vehicle Sales Outlook
“The U.S. alternative powertrain sector is entering the new year with performance that closely mirrors late 2025, as electric vehicle share holds steady and hybrid demand continues to climb. Early January data shows EV and plugin-hybrid penetration running nearly four percentage points below year-ago levels, with internal combustion vehicles and traditional hybrids absorbing the gains. Both EVs and PHEVs are on track to finish the month below 8% retail share, a notable shift from the nearly 12% combined share recorded last January,” said Tyson Jominy, senior vice president of OEM customer success at J.D. Power
“Automakers are responding to these dynamics with elevated incentive activity, particularly in the EV segment. EV incentive spending is highest in the industry, climbing more than $2000 from a year ago as manufacturers work to offset the loss of federal tax credits. January month to date spending is roughly $5700 per vehicle, only a few hundred dollars above PHEVs, but nearly $3500 above hybrids. EV leasing also continues to recalibrate – only 44% of EV transactions are now structured as leases, marking an 8-point drop from December and a dramatic 30-point decline compared with the same period last year.”
Global Sales Outlook
“December global light-vehicle sales are estimated to have decreased 2.4% year over year to 8.4 million units, dragged down by declines in China and North America. The selling rate for December was estimated at 93.0 million units, down from 94.6 million units in November. For 2025 overall, sales are estimated at 91.9 million units, up 3.6% year over year,” said David Oakley, manager, Americas vehicle sales forecasts at GlobalData.
“The pace of sales cooled significantly in China during December, though this was not unexpected. The government has now confirmed that the scrappage incentive scheme will be extended to the end of 2026, and consumers appeared to anticipate this move in December, reducing the urgency to make purchases. Elsewhere, most markets saw year over year growth, with Europe contributing a healthy gain, thanks to positive momentum in markets such as Germany and Turkey.
“January sales are expected to increase 4.1% from January 2025. Much of the growth is likely to come from China, India and other emerging markets in Asia, such as Vietnam. Modest expansion is forecast in Europe, while Japan could see a contraction in year over year terms, with consumers struggling with financing pressures. The global selling rate is expected to reach 85.7 million units in January, down from a rate of 88.8 million units in January 2025.
“Our initial forecast for total global sales in 2026 stands at 93.7 million units, up 1.9% year over year. China should still see year over year growth, but at a slower rate than in 2025, as changes to the scrappage incentive scheme are set to discourage OEMs from engaging in a price war. The recent escalation in trade tensions between the US and Europe over the issue of Greenland underlines downside risks that could impact on vehicle sales, either through direct tariffs or an erosion in economic strength,” said Oakley.
*AutoInformed on
**GlobalData
GlobalData says that “4000 of the world’s largest companies, including over 70% of FTSE 100 and 60% of Fortune 100 companies, make more timely and better business decisions thanks to GlobalData’s unique data, expert analysis, and innovative solutions, all in one platform. GlobalData’s mission is to help our clients decode the future to be more successful and innovative across a range of industries, including the healthcare, consumer, retail, financial, technology and professional services sectors.” J.D. Power is also part of GlobalData. Inquiries at: customersuccess.automotive@globaldata.com.
About Ken Zino
Ken Zino, editor and publisher of AutoInformed, is a versatile auto industry participant with global experience spanning decades in print and broadcast journalism, as well as social media. He has automobile testing, marketing, public relations and communications experience. He is past president of The International Motor Press Assn, the Detroit Press Club, founding member and first President of the Automotive Press Assn. He is a member of APA, IMPA and the Midwest Automotive Press Assn.
He also brings an historical perspective while citing their contemporary relevance of the work of legendary auto writers such as Ken Purdy, Jim Dunne or Jerry Flint, or writers such as Red Smith, Mark Twain, Thomas Jefferson – all to bring perspective to a chaotic automotive universe.
Above all, decades after he first drove a car, Zino still revels in the sound of the exhaust as the throttle is blipped during a downshift and the driver’s rush that occurs when the entry, apex and exit points of a turn are smoothly and swiftly crossed. It’s the beginning of a perfect lap.
AutoInformed has an editorial philosophy that loves transportation machines of all kinds while promoting critical thinking about the future use of cars and trucks.
Zino builds AutoInformed from his background in automotive journalism starting at Hearst Publishing in New York City on Motor and MotorTech Magazines and car testing where he reviewed hundreds of vehicles in his decade-long stint as the Detroit Bureau Chief of Road & Track magazine. Zino has also worked in Europe, and Asia – now the largest automotive market in the world with China at its center.
January 2026 U.S. Auto Sales Forecast Down
Click to enlarge.
Total new-vehicle sales for January 2026, including retail and non-retail transactions, are forecast to reach 1,118,700, a 2.7% decrease year-over-year, according to a joint analysis from J.D. Power* and GlobalData.** January 2026 has 26 selling days, one more than January 2025. Comparing the same sales volume without adjusting for the number of selling days translates to an increase of 1.2% from 2025. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for Retail new-vehicle sales is expected to be 12.7 million units, down 500,000 from January 2025.
“January is historically the lowest volume sales month of the year and is also historically the least indicative of full-year sales performance. Nevertheless, January opens 2026 with a modest performance with retail sales expected to increase by 1317 units compared to a year ago,” said Thomas King, president of OEM solutions at J.D. Power.
“As with every January, winter storms have the potential to create some disruption to sales patterns, but the key factors in assessing January’s performance are the co-mingling of lower EV sales, higher Incentives on internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles and ongoing profit pressure from tariffs,” said King.
The January U.S. Sales Forecast Details
Electric Vehicle Sales Outlook
“The U.S. alternative powertrain sector is entering the new year with performance that closely mirrors late 2025, as electric vehicle share holds steady and hybrid demand continues to climb. Early January data shows EV and plugin-hybrid penetration running nearly four percentage points below year-ago levels, with internal combustion vehicles and traditional hybrids absorbing the gains. Both EVs and PHEVs are on track to finish the month below 8% retail share, a notable shift from the nearly 12% combined share recorded last January,” said Tyson Jominy, senior vice president of OEM customer success at J.D. Power
“Automakers are responding to these dynamics with elevated incentive activity, particularly in the EV segment. EV incentive spending is highest in the industry, climbing more than $2000 from a year ago as manufacturers work to offset the loss of federal tax credits. January month to date spending is roughly $5700 per vehicle, only a few hundred dollars above PHEVs, but nearly $3500 above hybrids. EV leasing also continues to recalibrate – only 44% of EV transactions are now structured as leases, marking an 8-point drop from December and a dramatic 30-point decline compared with the same period last year.”
Global Sales Outlook
“December global light-vehicle sales are estimated to have decreased 2.4% year over year to 8.4 million units, dragged down by declines in China and North America. The selling rate for December was estimated at 93.0 million units, down from 94.6 million units in November. For 2025 overall, sales are estimated at 91.9 million units, up 3.6% year over year,” said David Oakley, manager, Americas vehicle sales forecasts at GlobalData.
“The pace of sales cooled significantly in China during December, though this was not unexpected. The government has now confirmed that the scrappage incentive scheme will be extended to the end of 2026, and consumers appeared to anticipate this move in December, reducing the urgency to make purchases. Elsewhere, most markets saw year over year growth, with Europe contributing a healthy gain, thanks to positive momentum in markets such as Germany and Turkey.
“January sales are expected to increase 4.1% from January 2025. Much of the growth is likely to come from China, India and other emerging markets in Asia, such as Vietnam. Modest expansion is forecast in Europe, while Japan could see a contraction in year over year terms, with consumers struggling with financing pressures. The global selling rate is expected to reach 85.7 million units in January, down from a rate of 88.8 million units in January 2025.
“Our initial forecast for total global sales in 2026 stands at 93.7 million units, up 1.9% year over year. China should still see year over year growth, but at a slower rate than in 2025, as changes to the scrappage incentive scheme are set to discourage OEMs from engaging in a price war. The recent escalation in trade tensions between the US and Europe over the issue of Greenland underlines downside risks that could impact on vehicle sales, either through direct tariffs or an erosion in economic strength,” said Oakley.
*AutoInformed on
**GlobalData
GlobalData says that “4000 of the world’s largest companies, including over 70% of FTSE 100 and 60% of Fortune 100 companies, make more timely and better business decisions thanks to GlobalData’s unique data, expert analysis, and innovative solutions, all in one platform. GlobalData’s mission is to help our clients decode the future to be more successful and innovative across a range of industries, including the healthcare, consumer, retail, financial, technology and professional services sectors.” J.D. Power is also part of GlobalData. Inquiries at: customersuccess.automotive@globaldata.com.
About Ken Zino
Ken Zino, editor and publisher of AutoInformed, is a versatile auto industry participant with global experience spanning decades in print and broadcast journalism, as well as social media. He has automobile testing, marketing, public relations and communications experience. He is past president of The International Motor Press Assn, the Detroit Press Club, founding member and first President of the Automotive Press Assn. He is a member of APA, IMPA and the Midwest Automotive Press Assn. He also brings an historical perspective while citing their contemporary relevance of the work of legendary auto writers such as Ken Purdy, Jim Dunne or Jerry Flint, or writers such as Red Smith, Mark Twain, Thomas Jefferson – all to bring perspective to a chaotic automotive universe. Above all, decades after he first drove a car, Zino still revels in the sound of the exhaust as the throttle is blipped during a downshift and the driver’s rush that occurs when the entry, apex and exit points of a turn are smoothly and swiftly crossed. It’s the beginning of a perfect lap. AutoInformed has an editorial philosophy that loves transportation machines of all kinds while promoting critical thinking about the future use of cars and trucks. Zino builds AutoInformed from his background in automotive journalism starting at Hearst Publishing in New York City on Motor and MotorTech Magazines and car testing where he reviewed hundreds of vehicles in his decade-long stint as the Detroit Bureau Chief of Road & Track magazine. Zino has also worked in Europe, and Asia – now the largest automotive market in the world with China at its center.