Tag Archives: Patrick Manzi

Soothsayer Shortfall – US Light Vehicle Sales Flat in July

US Light Vehicle (LV) sales fell by 0.4% YoY in July, to 1.30 million. When sales contracted in June largely as the result of the CDK cyberattack,* it was expected  by industry soothsayers that the market would experience a significant rebound in July. It didn’t happen. According to preliminary estimates released today by the respected GlobalData** consultancy, Light Vehicle (LV) sales fell by 0.4% YoY. Continue reading

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NADA – 2023 US Sales Forecast at 14.6 Million

Forecasting is a risky business in these times. Multiple factors are in play. The increasing number of new-vehicle incentives also contributed to the April sales gains. According to J.D. Power, average incentive spending per unit in April is expected to total $1599, an increase of, gulp,  58.9% compared with April 2022. While average incentive spending has risen from extreme lows, it has not increased at the same rate at all automakers. Some brands have been able to finally increase new-vehicle supply, but others are still struggling. To state the obvious, brands with more to sell are positioned to offer  incentives. Key here might be the return of Memorial Day sales later at the end of May. Continue reading

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US Light Vehicles Sales in January 2023 Weak at 1 Million

The usual problems remain – record high transaction prices, economic uncertainty, the Federal Reserve’s determination to send the economy into a recession via its ongoing interest rate increases, skimpy inventory caused by supply chain disruptions for some major automakers, notably Ford and Toyota – all make for a rerun of the flop show Pandemic Blues. So good luck reopening that show in 2023 with the same cast and plot. Continue reading

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Mixed Economic Signals in October US Vehicle Sales

Nonetheless, automaker discounts persist at record lows. Average incentive spending per unit per Power is forecast to total $882, which is down 44.7% from October 2021. This is the sixth straight month below $1000. The question is when do vehicles become un-affordable as the Federal Reserve is deliberately sending the economy into a recession to fight inflation, which the Fed caused by years of of cheap monetary policy that mostly benefited the rich. In a mass market for automobiles, the rich can’t buy all the vehicles as production resumes to pre-pandemic rates that were running at 17 million vehicles annually.  Continue reading

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NADA Cautious on 2022 US Light Vehicle Sales Outlook

However, September 2021 was the weakest since May 2020, because of pandemic induced supply chain disruptions and parts shortages, which resulted in  the lowest saleable inventory for more than three decades. Continue reading

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Demand Greater than Supply during June in US

“The shortage of microchips continues to limit vehicle production, but it’s not the only hurdle. Numerous other supply chain disruptions have limited OEM production, and many OEMs continue to nearly complete their vehicles and park them while they await chips. Unfortunately, these supply chain issues will continue to limit new-vehicle production, inventory and sales levels for the rest of the year,” said Patrick Manzi, chief economist of the National Automobile Dealers Association.   Continue reading

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US April Sales Up 6.5%. SAAR Down -21.9% YoY

“However, April 2022’s SAAR was down by 21.9% compared to the stellar sales pace seen in April of 2021 which was driven by strong consumer demand and enough inventory available to meet that demand. April 2021 was one of the last sales months before inventory began to decline significantly and limit the sales pace. We don’t expect that April’s month-end inventory level will change much from March’s level of 1.23 million units as the industry is still unable to produce enough vehicles to meet current demand, let alone restock dealer lots,” said Patrick Manzi, NADA’s Chief Economist. Continue reading

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NADA – Light Trucks Dominating Market

According to J.D. Power, the average transaction price for a new light vehicle in January 2022 is expected to reach $44,905. High transaction prices continue to be supported by strong demand and very low OEM discounting. Average incentive spending per unit in January 2022 should total just $1,319, down by $2,163 from January 2021, J.D. Power says. Continued high demand for used vehicles has increased consumers’ equity in their trades. J.D. Power expects the average consumer trade-in equity to be up by 88% year over year for January 2022. Continue reading

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NADA Predicts 2022 New-Vehicle Sales of 15.4M, up 3.4%

Whether such long-term predictions are of any use is an open question at AutoInformed given the volatility of the ongoing COVID pandemic. Consider that 2021 closed with new-light vehicle sales of 14.93 million units, an increase of 3.1% compared to 2020’s sales volume of 14.47 million units. However, December 2021’s SAAR totaled just 12.44 million units, a decrease of -23.7% compared to December of 2020. Continue reading

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US August Light Vehicle Sales Continue Shrinking Trend

 “The month of August is historically a peak selling month as manufacturers launch promotional events to clear inventories of outgoing model-year vehicles and begin sales of the new model year. This year, however, the industry has insufficient inventory at dealerships to meet strong consumer demand. The consequence is that the retail sales pace is depressed, but transaction prices are elevated,” said Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power. Continue reading

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2021 Q2 US Sales – Light-Trucks, Crossovers, SUVs Rule

Real GDP in Q2 of 2021 is expected to grow by 8.6% on an annualized basis. The U.S. economy is predicted to return to its pre-COVID Trump Administration disaster level of ~ $19.2 trillion by the time final data is collected. For all of 2021, real GDP is expected to increase by around 7%. Initial jobless claims continue to fall each week and are headed toward pre-pandemic levels. About 14.7 million Americans continue to receive at least some type of unemployment benefits, down 54% compared to the same period in 2020 when Trump ruled. Continue reading

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NADA 2019 Light Vehicle Sales Projected at 16.8 Million

Based on a strong November, new-vehicle sales are expected to reach 17 million units in 2018, which would mark the fourth straight year of U.S. auto sales above 17 million units. (see AutoInformed: Auto Loans – Payments Higher, Subprime Lending Lower. The Federal Reserve Board is likely to raise rates in December 2018. More rate increases are likely during the early half of 2019 and then rates are expected to hold.) Continue reading

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