Click to enlarge.
Total new-vehicle sales for July 2026, including retail and non-retail transactions, are forecast to reach 1,415,800, a 1.4% increase year-over-year, according to a joint forecast today from J.D. Power and GlobalData. The SAAR for total new-vehicle sales is expected to be 16.9 million units, up 0.3 million units from July 2025.*
“As with last year, macroeconomic uncertainty and affordability challenges persist, while higher fuel prices are an additional headwind this year. Despite all these complex dynamics, new vehicle demand remains robust. In fact, retail consumers are expected to spend $51.8 billion buying new vehicles this month, up $1.2 billion from a year ago and the highest ever for the month of July,” said Thomas King, president of OEM solutions at JD Power.
Click to enlarge.
“Regarding affordability, the cost of financing a new vehicle keeps easing, though not by enough to neutralize the structural affordability pressures weighing on buyers. The average interest rate on new-vehicle loans is expected to fall 7 basis points to 6.54%, the lowest July reading since 2022. However, the average transaction price of a new vehicle has increased to $45,369, an increase of 1.2% from a year ago, while average monthly finance payments have climbed 3.3% to $808, the highest ever for the month of July. A key driver of the higher monthly payment, despite longer loan terms, is lower trade-in equity. Many of the buyers returning to showrooms today purchased when prices were at their peak several years ago when inventory was scarce. This is resulting in more buyers carrying negative equity on their trade-in; 29.4% of trade-ins had negative equity in July, up 1.1 percentage points from a year ago,” said King.
“To manage monthly payments, consumers are using longer loan terms, with 13.8% of loans now carrying terms of 84 months or longer, up 2.0 percentage points year-over-year,” said King.
Retail sales volume growth with higher transaction prices means that total retail consumer expenditure is projected by J.D. Power to rise to $51.8 billion, an increase of $1.2 billion from July 2025.
*AutoInformed on
About Ken Zino
Ken Zino, editor and publisher of AutoInformed, is a versatile auto industry participant with global experience spanning decades in print and broadcast journalism, as well as social media. He has automobile testing, marketing, public relations and communications experience. He is past president of The International Motor Press Assn, the Detroit Press Club, founding member and first President of the Automotive Press Assn. He is a member of APA, IMPA and the Midwest Automotive Press Assn.
He also brings an historical perspective while citing their contemporary relevance of the work of legendary auto writers such as Ken Purdy, Jim Dunne or Jerry Flint, or writers such as Red Smith, Mark Twain, Thomas Jefferson – all to bring perspective to a chaotic automotive universe.
Above all, decades after he first drove a car, Zino still revels in the sound of the exhaust as the throttle is blipped during a downshift and the driver’s rush that occurs when the entry, apex and exit points of a turn are smoothly and swiftly crossed. It’s the beginning of a perfect lap.
AutoInformed has an editorial philosophy that loves transportation machines of all kinds while promoting critical thinking about the future use of cars and trucks.
Zino builds AutoInformed from his background in automotive journalism starting at Hearst Publishing in New York City on Motor and MotorTech Magazines and car testing where he reviewed hundreds of vehicles in his decade-long stint as the Detroit Bureau Chief of Road & Track magazine. Zino has also worked in Europe, and Asia – now the largest automotive market in the world with China at its center.
Financing Costs Ease a Tad But Payments Set July Record
Click to enlarge.
Total new-vehicle sales for July 2026, including retail and non-retail transactions, are forecast to reach 1,415,800, a 1.4% increase year-over-year, according to a joint forecast today from J.D. Power and GlobalData. The SAAR for total new-vehicle sales is expected to be 16.9 million units, up 0.3 million units from July 2025.*
“As with last year, macroeconomic uncertainty and affordability challenges persist, while higher fuel prices are an additional headwind this year. Despite all these complex dynamics, new vehicle demand remains robust. In fact, retail consumers are expected to spend $51.8 billion buying new vehicles this month, up $1.2 billion from a year ago and the highest ever for the month of July,” said Thomas King, president of OEM solutions at JD Power.
Click to enlarge.
“Regarding affordability, the cost of financing a new vehicle keeps easing, though not by enough to neutralize the structural affordability pressures weighing on buyers. The average interest rate on new-vehicle loans is expected to fall 7 basis points to 6.54%, the lowest July reading since 2022. However, the average transaction price of a new vehicle has increased to $45,369, an increase of 1.2% from a year ago, while average monthly finance payments have climbed 3.3% to $808, the highest ever for the month of July. A key driver of the higher monthly payment, despite longer loan terms, is lower trade-in equity. Many of the buyers returning to showrooms today purchased when prices were at their peak several years ago when inventory was scarce. This is resulting in more buyers carrying negative equity on their trade-in; 29.4% of trade-ins had negative equity in July, up 1.1 percentage points from a year ago,” said King.
“To manage monthly payments, consumers are using longer loan terms, with 13.8% of loans now carrying terms of 84 months or longer, up 2.0 percentage points year-over-year,” said King.
Retail sales volume growth with higher transaction prices means that total retail consumer expenditure is projected by J.D. Power to rise to $51.8 billion, an increase of $1.2 billion from July 2025.
*AutoInformed on
About Ken Zino
Ken Zino, editor and publisher of AutoInformed, is a versatile auto industry participant with global experience spanning decades in print and broadcast journalism, as well as social media. He has automobile testing, marketing, public relations and communications experience. He is past president of The International Motor Press Assn, the Detroit Press Club, founding member and first President of the Automotive Press Assn. He is a member of APA, IMPA and the Midwest Automotive Press Assn. He also brings an historical perspective while citing their contemporary relevance of the work of legendary auto writers such as Ken Purdy, Jim Dunne or Jerry Flint, or writers such as Red Smith, Mark Twain, Thomas Jefferson – all to bring perspective to a chaotic automotive universe. Above all, decades after he first drove a car, Zino still revels in the sound of the exhaust as the throttle is blipped during a downshift and the driver’s rush that occurs when the entry, apex and exit points of a turn are smoothly and swiftly crossed. It’s the beginning of a perfect lap. AutoInformed has an editorial philosophy that loves transportation machines of all kinds while promoting critical thinking about the future use of cars and trucks. Zino builds AutoInformed from his background in automotive journalism starting at Hearst Publishing in New York City on Motor and MotorTech Magazines and car testing where he reviewed hundreds of vehicles in his decade-long stint as the Detroit Bureau Chief of Road & Track magazine. Zino has also worked in Europe, and Asia – now the largest automotive market in the world with China at its center.