Once again at the beginning of 2025 AutoInformed notes – matter-of-factly – that its vision is 20-20 on the consequences of long past occurrences. However, in the here and now our perception is cloudy. We do not have the advantages of historians re-assessing events years later with help from other news outlets, blogs, letters, memoirs, magazines and whatever new forms of expressed thought emerge. Thus far the most valued revisions and nuanced interpretations appear in books and essays after more documents and perspectives surface from the players or perpetrators engaged in them. These are not yet available, and under Trump 2.0 they would likely be banned anyway.
Nonetheless, AutoInformed still attempts to bring insights into events of the time and how they affect Automobility. When we get it right, a richer perspective emerges that observes that the past is a partial but sometimes significant influence on the events or chaos of the present. With these in mind, here’s our take on the last annum of automobility, from electrified vehicles to global warming, to trade and tariffs and, alas, to the return of American fascism and the re-establishment of an American plutocracy.
We do this with a humble awareness that AutoInformed conducts its education in public. We begin with our comments on significant recent automotive stories as we enter another year of torments, whether they be the return of infectious diseases – economic, medical, political, social – or other human follies that ignore or mock the founding principles of our Republic established for We The People.
Trump 2.0
One of the ironies of the Republican assertion that “the government is the problem” is that history shows that at least since the Hoover Administration evidence supporting this comes mainly from Republican rule. The revenge-seeking Trump Administration hit list now includes President Biden, Liz Cheney, Dr. Fauci, Mitt Romney, among others, and if he were still alive John McCain – decent Americans all in our view.
That said, another victim of revenge, unintended or not, is the auto industry. After the election of Donald Trump, Jeff Schuster, Vice President Research Automotive at the respected GlobalData consultancy, offered thoughts on some of the changes expected in the US automotive industry from Trump 2.0. Fasten your safety belts! AutoInformed thinks it’s going to be a potholed road with a job-, climate- and economy-threatening ride.
We share Schuster’s view that Tariffs are a significant anxiety for the industry that could lead to higher vehicle prices for consumers and potentially limit choices. Simply put, Tariffs affect any vehicles imported to the US, including those from Mexico and Canada. Economics 101: The reduced supply or increased prices of affected vehicles will impact overall sales volume as prices rise higher and higher. Retaliation by trading partners is likely, which could negatively affect US exports. Remember Trump’s losing trade war with China that ultimately cost U.S. taxpayers $18 trillion – yes TRILLION -in direct payments/subsidies to U.S. farmers who lost the ability to export what they grew because of Chinese retaliation.
Moreover, there’s OH CANADA. Our peaceful northern good neighbor in a bout of tariff retaliation could cut off oil exports to the U.S. leading to another oil crisis in the U.S. where sales of pickup trucks and large SUVs are benefiting our automakers. (This took out and exemplary 39th U.S. President, farmer and veteran named Carter, may Jimmy rest in peace.) Adding to this folly are two old, thoroughly dis-proven Trump tropes: that Global warming is a Chinese hoax and emission regulations are wrong. The Chinese threat to the auto industry remains real and it is increasing as economies of scale resulting in lower prices are leading to global disruptions in the auto industry with negative trade and economic consequences. (AutoInformed: Nissan and Honda Sign Integration MOU!) But the large-scale multi-billion dollar climate calamities increasing in occurrence need to be eliminated by sound environmental policies and global cooperation, neither of which are Trump hallmarks.
“We anticipate that the transition to electric vehicles (EVs) in the US will be hindered under Trump’s administration. His focus on reducing oil/fuel prices and rolling back emissions standards could lead to a 15-20% decrease in the market share of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in the US by 2030 compared to our base forecast. This will depend on the extent to which the administration cuts investments in infrastructure and eliminates the leasing tax credit under section 45W of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA),” said Jeff Schuster at GlobalData.
Infrastructure
President Biden’s Investing in America agenda funded by two major discretionary grant programs, the National Infrastructure Project Assistance (Mega*) grant program and the Infrastructure for Rebuilding America (INFRA**) grant program without question improved or is in the process of improving the safety, efficiency, and reliability of the movement of freight and people in and across rural and urban areas. More than half of the projects being funded through the INFRA program are in rural communities. Instead of billions invested in tax cuts for plutocrats under the first Trump mis-administration, these endeavors create jobs while assuring that trade and commerce in the U.S. can move forward to a better future.
Now Trump is favoring un-funded tax cuts for the wealthy once again. This will be for most of us a disaster, including the automobile industry, which depends on middle class buyers. Speaking of which how about a badly needed increase in the minimum wage without the wealthy tax cuts?! [*The Mega program, which was created by the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and provides $5 billion in funding through 2026, is focused on projects that are uniquely large, complex and difficult to fund under traditional grant programs. **The INFRA program, for which funding was increased more than 50% by the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, also funds large scale, transformational infrastructure projects]
Industrial Policy
This leads us to U.S. industrial policy on building things that make for a better present and future, or its glaring lack thereof. Positive aspects of the Biden Administration policies were the bolstering of international cooperation and alliances, as well as the strengthening of unions. We need secure supplies of vital components and their makings right down to elements of the periodic table. So-called “Free market” ideologues, many of them backed by fossil-fuel-providers, disdain such progressive thinking and are positively scornful of a federally directed industrial policy such as the one established in the Biden Administration’s Inflation Reduction Act. Not a single Republican voted for it. This was, arguably, the U.S.’ first significant climate law since Congressional hearings were first conducted on the environment four decades ago. It was also significant change in political philosophy toward rational thinking over ideology.
The Q4 2024 Cox Automotive Dealer Sentiment Index (CADSI) released during the second week of December 2024 indicates growing optimism among U.S. auto dealers. “We saw a surge in the outlook, technically the largest surge we have had quarterly in the history of the data,” said Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke. “It is the best fourth quarter since 2021, which was the most profitable quarter in dealer history.” This is before the virtually certain negative effects of Trump’s impending tariff’s. It also doesn’t take into account the enormous costs of Trump’s project 2025 proposals, including the mass deportations of workers and more massive tax cuts for billionaires.
“We can stop fretting about a soft landing and acknowledge we’ve navigated restrictive rates, slowing job growth and increasing unemployment,” said Smoke.
We disagree. Job growth and employment face dim prospects under Trump 2.0. In closing here’s George Santayana, “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”
AutoInformed on
Significant 2024 Automotive Stories and Trends
Nonetheless, AutoInformed still attempts to bring insights into events of the time and how they affect Automobility. When we get it right, a richer perspective emerges that observes that the past is a partial but sometimes significant influence on the events or chaos of the present. With these in mind, here’s our take on the last annum of automobility, from electrified vehicles to global warming, to trade and tariffs and, alas, to the return of American fascism and the re-establishment of an American plutocracy.
We do this with a humble awareness that AutoInformed conducts its education in public. We begin with our comments on significant recent automotive stories as we enter another year of torments, whether they be the return of infectious diseases – economic, medical, political, social – or other human follies that ignore or mock the founding principles of our Republic established for We The People.
Trump 2.0
One of the ironies of the Republican assertion that “the government is the problem” is that history shows that at least since the Hoover Administration evidence supporting this comes mainly from Republican rule. The revenge-seeking Trump Administration hit list now includes President Biden, Liz Cheney, Dr. Fauci, Mitt Romney, among others, and if he were still alive John McCain – decent Americans all in our view.
That said, another victim of revenge, unintended or not, is the auto industry. After the election of Donald Trump, Jeff Schuster, Vice President Research Automotive at the respected GlobalData consultancy, offered thoughts on some of the changes expected in the US automotive industry from Trump 2.0. Fasten your safety belts! AutoInformed thinks it’s going to be a potholed road with a job-, climate- and economy-threatening ride.
We share Schuster’s view that Tariffs are a significant anxiety for the industry that could lead to higher vehicle prices for consumers and potentially limit choices. Simply put, Tariffs affect any vehicles imported to the US, including those from Mexico and Canada. Economics 101: The reduced supply or increased prices of affected vehicles will impact overall sales volume as prices rise higher and higher. Retaliation by trading partners is likely, which could negatively affect US exports. Remember Trump’s losing trade war with China that ultimately cost U.S. taxpayers $18 trillion – yes TRILLION -in direct payments/subsidies to U.S. farmers who lost the ability to export what they grew because of Chinese retaliation.
Moreover, there’s OH CANADA. Our peaceful northern good neighbor in a bout of tariff retaliation could cut off oil exports to the U.S. leading to another oil crisis in the U.S. where sales of pickup trucks and large SUVs are benefiting our automakers. (This took out and exemplary 39th U.S. President, farmer and veteran named Carter, may Jimmy rest in peace.) Adding to this folly are two old, thoroughly dis-proven Trump tropes: that Global warming is a Chinese hoax and emission regulations are wrong. The Chinese threat to the auto industry remains real and it is increasing as economies of scale resulting in lower prices are leading to global disruptions in the auto industry with negative trade and economic consequences. (AutoInformed: Nissan and Honda Sign Integration MOU!) But the large-scale multi-billion dollar climate calamities increasing in occurrence need to be eliminated by sound environmental policies and global cooperation, neither of which are Trump hallmarks.
“We anticipate that the transition to electric vehicles (EVs) in the US will be hindered under Trump’s administration. His focus on reducing oil/fuel prices and rolling back emissions standards could lead to a 15-20% decrease in the market share of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in the US by 2030 compared to our base forecast. This will depend on the extent to which the administration cuts investments in infrastructure and eliminates the leasing tax credit under section 45W of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA),” said Jeff Schuster at GlobalData.
Infrastructure
President Biden’s Investing in America agenda funded by two major discretionary grant programs, the National Infrastructure Project Assistance (Mega*) grant program and the Infrastructure for Rebuilding America (INFRA**) grant program without question improved or is in the process of improving the safety, efficiency, and reliability of the movement of freight and people in and across rural and urban areas. More than half of the projects being funded through the INFRA program are in rural communities. Instead of billions invested in tax cuts for plutocrats under the first Trump mis-administration, these endeavors create jobs while assuring that trade and commerce in the U.S. can move forward to a better future.
Now Trump is favoring un-funded tax cuts for the wealthy once again. This will be for most of us a disaster, including the automobile industry, which depends on middle class buyers. Speaking of which how about a badly needed increase in the minimum wage without the wealthy tax cuts?! [*The Mega program, which was created by the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and provides $5 billion in funding through 2026, is focused on projects that are uniquely large, complex and difficult to fund under traditional grant programs. **The INFRA program, for which funding was increased more than 50% by the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, also funds large scale, transformational infrastructure projects]
Industrial Policy
This leads us to U.S. industrial policy on building things that make for a better present and future, or its glaring lack thereof. Positive aspects of the Biden Administration policies were the bolstering of international cooperation and alliances, as well as the strengthening of unions. We need secure supplies of vital components and their makings right down to elements of the periodic table. So-called “Free market” ideologues, many of them backed by fossil-fuel-providers, disdain such progressive thinking and are positively scornful of a federally directed industrial policy such as the one established in the Biden Administration’s Inflation Reduction Act. Not a single Republican voted for it. This was, arguably, the U.S.’ first significant climate law since Congressional hearings were first conducted on the environment four decades ago. It was also significant change in political philosophy toward rational thinking over ideology.
The Q4 2024 Cox Automotive Dealer Sentiment Index (CADSI) released during the second week of December 2024 indicates growing optimism among U.S. auto dealers. “We saw a surge in the outlook, technically the largest surge we have had quarterly in the history of the data,” said Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke. “It is the best fourth quarter since 2021, which was the most profitable quarter in dealer history.” This is before the virtually certain negative effects of Trump’s impending tariff’s. It also doesn’t take into account the enormous costs of Trump’s project 2025 proposals, including the mass deportations of workers and more massive tax cuts for billionaires.
“We can stop fretting about a soft landing and acknowledge we’ve navigated restrictive rates, slowing job growth and increasing unemployment,” said Smoke.
We disagree. Job growth and employment face dim prospects under Trump 2.0. In closing here’s George Santayana, “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”
AutoInformed on