December Global Light Vehicle Sales at 82M Down Again

December’s Global Light Vehicle selling rate fell for the fourth consecutive month to 82.7 million units/year, despite flat YoY raw monthly registrations. The total sales figure for 2022, 81 million vehicles, came in slightly below that of 2021 (-0.6%) due to heightened market disruptions, according to the latest data punished by the respected LMC* consultancy.

China’s market was a major culprit with its sluggish end to 2022 . In China December raw sales were down almost 12% year-over-year (YoY), which LMC attributed to increased disruption and uncertainty with the abrupt ending to the zero-Covid policy. North America and Europe showed positive YoY growth for December, although both remained below their 2021 sales, -7% and -11% respectively.

Ken Zino of AutoInformed.com on December Global Light Vehicle Sales at 82M Down Again

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Highlights and Lowlights

North America

US sales grew by 7.4% YoY in December, to 1.3 million units. The YoY comparison was due to 2021 sales being weak, with the selling rate also falling to 13.5 million units/year, from 14.2 million units/year in November. Average transaction prices also continued to climb, hitting another record high of $47,362. US annual sales are estimated at 13.7 million units, down by 8% YoY and the lowest since 2011.

Canadian LV sales are estimated to have increased by 7.0% YoY, to 107,000 units. The selling rate is thought to have slowed to 1.5 million units/year, from a downwardly revised 1.6 million units/year in November. Total annual sales were just 1.5 million units, down by 8% YoY, and the lowest since 2009.

Mexican sales were up by 20% YoY in December to 120k units. For the calendar year, sales grew by 8% YoY, to 1.1 million units.

Europe

The West European selling rate recorded the strongest performance of the year in December at 14.7 million units/year, up from 13.8 million units/year in November. In raw monthly terms, December was up 13% YoY, with 1.1 million units registered. While this was the second highest registration result of 2022, the market was down 6% YoY and was the lowest annual result seen during either the pandemic or the financial crisis.

The East European selling rate remained at 3.0 million units/year for December, despite raw monthly registrations increasing well versus November. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has continued to suppress sales in this region with the annual total down 27% YoY, led chiefly by Russian sales falling almost 60% YoY.

China

The Chinese market finished 2022 feebly caused by the sudden end of the zero‐COVID policy. According to preliminary data, December’s selling rate was 24.3 million units/year, down about 2% from a weak November. In YoY terms, sales (wholesales) declined by nearly 12% in December. In full‐year 2022, total LV sales increased by more than 4% to 26.6 million units, the second consecutive year of expansion – but that was still far lower than 2017’s record high of 28.6 million, said LMC.

China Passenger Car Association reports that retail sales of Passenger Vehicles (PV) increased slightly YoY in December, as consumers ran to buy vehicles before the temporary purchase tax cut on internal combustion engine models expired at the end of 2022. EV subsidies were also abolished in December, while the temporary purchase tax exemption for New Electric Vehicles (NEVs) was extended until the end of 2023. During 2022, NEVs accounted for about 24% of total LV sales, with wholesales increasing by 49% YoY in December and 96% in full‐year 2022.

Elsewhere in Asia

The Japanese market December  selling rate was 4.6 million units/year which, while a good, was hindered by supply shortages. Overall, 2022 sales reached only 4.2 million units, down 5.2% from 2021. This was the lowest annual sales since 1977 and the fourth consecutive year of contraction.

India surpassed Japan during 2022, becoming the world’s third largest auto market.

In Korea, the December selling rate was a slow 1.6 million units/year, down 8.4% from a November. “Consumers decided to delay their purchases to 2023, due the extension of the temporary excise tax cut on PVs to 30th June 2023 and the abolishment of the mandatory public bond purchase (a kind of tax) for smaller PVs, starting from 1 January 2023. In full‐year 2022 sales declined by 2% to 1.7 million units, hampered by the global supply‐chain crisis,” LMC said.

South America

Brazilian LV sales increased by 4.0% YoY in December to 202k units, the highest monthly sales of 2022. While the selling rate declined to 2.2 million units/year, this is the second highest rate this year, only below November’s selling rate. Additionally, inventory declined by 10.2k units, down for the first time since May, though this may simply be a sign of strong sales. For the full 2022 calendar year, sales totaled 1.96 million units, down by 1% YoY.

Argentina sales are estimated to have grown by 13.5% YoY in December, to 18.3k units. The selling rate declined to 404k units/year in December. However, November’s selling rate was exceptional. Overall, 2022 sales totaled 380k units, up 8% YoY. This makes Argentina as the third largest market in the region, behind Chile

*LMC Automotive – a GlobalData Company

 LMC Automotive is a leading independent and exclusively automotive focused provider of global forecasting and market intelligence in the areas of vehicle sales, production, powertrains and electrification. The company’s global clients include car and truck makers, component manufacturers and suppliers, financial, logistics and government institutions. LMC Automotive is part of the LMC group, as is J.D. Power. LMC is also the world’s leading economic and business consultancy for the agribusiness sector.

The Global Light Vehicle Sales Forecast. Published in association with Jato Dynamics Ltd, builds on macro‐economic forecasts generated by our partner, the renowned Oxford Economics, which, combined with an examination of demographics, fiscal and regulatory influences by LMC’s own specialist automotive research team, presents twelve‐year forecasts at a global, regional and country level for Light Vehicle demand in 137 countries.

In its most detailed form, model level forecasts are updated monthly and are provided in annual, quarterly and monthly time slices. Quarterly summary reports analyze the current market situation and likely future evolution from the perspective of developments at a country level and from the position of each major OEM. For more information about LMC Automotive, visit www.lmc-auto.com. or contact LMC directly at forecasting@lmc-auto.com.

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