Tag Archives: Thomas King

November U.S. and Global New Vehicle Sales Forecast Down

Total new-vehicle sales for November 2025, including retail and non-retail transactions, are estimated to reach 1,255,900, a 5.2% decrease year over year, according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power and GlobalData released today. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is expected to be 15.4 million units, down 1.2 million units from November 2024. Global November sales are expected to decrease 3.9% from November 2024. The global selling rate is expected to reach 92.7 million units in November, down from a rate of 95.8 million units in November 2024.

“November’s results reflect another notable—yet anticipated—decline in the [U.S.] new-vehicle sales pace, driven largely by the pull-ahead of electric vehicle (EV) purchases prior to the expiration of federal EV tax credits on Sept. 30. That expiration prompted many shoppers to accelerate buying decisions, resulting in a surge in EV sales that temporarily inflated the overall industry sales pace. Now, two months after the credit expired, the industry continues to feel the effect of those accelerated purchases. In November, EVs are expected to account for just 6.0% of new-vehicle retail sales, consistent with October but well below the 12.9% recorded in September,” said Thomas King, president of OEM solutions at J.D. Power. Continue reading

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October U.S. Vehicle Sales Forecast Flat. Global Sales Up

Total new-vehicle sales for October 2025, including retail and non-retail transactions, are projected to reach 1,249,800, a 6.9% decrease year-over-year, according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power* and GlobalData.** October 2025 has 27 selling days, the same as October 2024. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is forecast to be 15.1 million units, down 1.1 million units from October 2024.

“October’s results reflect a notable, but expected decline in the new-vehicle sales pace, due almost entirely to sales of electric vehicles. “The expiration of federal EV credits on Sept. 30 caused EV shoppers to pull ahead their purchases, driving a significant increase in EV sales and inflating the overall industry sales pace,” said Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power. Continue reading

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September 2025 U.S. Vehicle Sales Forecast Flat. Global Sales Better

Total U.S. new-vehicle sales for September 2025, including retail and non-retail transactions, are projected to reach 1,232,200, a 0.1% increase year over year, according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power and GlobalData released today. September 2025 has 24 selling days, one more than September 2024. Comparing the same sales volume without adjusting for the number of selling days translates to an increase of 4.5% from 2024.*

“In aggregate, September sales results point to another month of strong demand for new vehicles. However, as has been the case for the past few months, assessing the health of the industry requires a closer look at the underlying market dynamics,” said Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power. Continue reading

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August New-Vehicle Sales Forecast Up. EVs at Record

Total new-vehicle sales for August 2025, including retail and non-retail transactions, are projected to reach 1,483,000, an 8.2% increase year over year, according to a joint forecast issued today by J.D. Power* and GlobalData.** August 2025 has 27 selling days, one fewer than August 2024. Comparing the same sales volume without adjusting for the number of selling days is an increase of 4.4% from 2024.

“August new-vehicle sales are expected to climb 8.2% from a year ago, including a 7.8% increase in retail volume. A strong result, although the results should be viewed in the context of several unusual factors that are distorting typical monthly sales trends” said Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power. Continue reading

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July Record – $49.8B Spent New Vehicles in U.S.

Total U.S. new-vehicle sales for July 2025, including retail and non-retail transactions, are forecast to reach 1,380,500, a 3.2% increase from July 2024 according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power and GlobalData. Comparing the same sales volume without adjusting for the number of selling days translates to an increase of 7.4% from 2024. Nonetheless, consumer spending set record for month with $49.8 billion spent on new vehicles if the forecast holds, which is likely given the track record of the source.

“July retail sales are projected to finish 4.1% higher than a year ago but interpreting that gain requires care due to events both last year and this year that disrupted normal monthly sales patterns,” said Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power. Continue reading

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Trump Tariff Legacy – U.S. June Auto Sales Soft

Total U.S. new-vehicle sales during June 2025, including retail and non-retail transactions, are projected to reach 1,247,900, a slight 2.5% increase from June 2024 according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power and GlobalData released today.* June 2025 has 24 selling days, two fewer than June 2024. Comparing the same sales volume without adjusting for the number of selling days translates to a decrease of 5.4% from 2024.The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is expected to be 15.0 million units, up 0.2 million units from June 2024. Continue reading

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Slight Labor Day Jump Forecast for August US Auto Sales

Absolute new-vehicle sales for August 2024, including retail and non-retail transactions, are set to reach 1,437,954, a 4.2% increase from August 2023 on a selling day adjusted basis, according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power and GlobalData.* August 2024 has 28 selling days, one more than August 2023. Comparing the same sales volume without adjusting for the number of selling days translates to an increase of 8.1% from 2023.

“New-vehicle sales in August are up from a year ago, as expected. A key element of the improvement is that this year, the Labor Day holiday weekend falls within the August** sales reporting period instead of September where it normally falls,” said Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power. “While the sales results for August will be positive, the seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR), which corrects for Labor Day timing, is relatively modest at just 15.3 million units.” Continue reading

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May 2024 US New Vehicle Sales Forecast Up

US new-vehicle sales for May 2024, including retail and non-retail transactions, are forecast at 1,446,800, a 2.9% increase from May 2023 on a selling day adjusted basis, according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power and GlobalData.* May 2024 has … Continue reading

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April US New Vehicle Sales Flat as Trade-in Values Drop

Total new-vehicle sales for April 2024, including both retail and non-retail transactions, are estimated to reach 1,304,600 units, a 0.9% decrease from April 2023 on a selling day adjusted basis, according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power and GlobalData.* … Continue reading

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March US Vehicle Sales Up. Record Q1 Consumer Spending!

Total US new-vehicle sales for March 2024, are projected to reach 1,525,700 units, a 12.1% increase from March 2023, according to a joint forecast today from J.D. Power and GlobalData.* The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is expected to be 16.4 million units, up 1.6 million units from March 2023. New-vehicle total sales for Q1 2024 are projected at 3,830,500 units, a 4.5% increase from Q1 2023 when adjusted for selling days as the Biden Administration recovery continues.

New-vehicle retail sales for March 2024 are also expected to increase when compared with March 2023. Retail sales of new vehicles are forecast at 1,225,000 units, a 10.7% increase from March 2023. New-vehicle retail sales for Q1 2024 are projected at  3,066,500 units, a 4.5% increase from Q1 2023 when adjusted for selling days. Continue reading

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Record Consumer Spending Forecast for US February Sales

Total new-vehicle sales for February 2024 in the US, including retail and non-retail transactions, are projected to reach 1,214,600 units, a 1.4% increase from February 2023, according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power and GlobalData* issued today. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is expected to be 15.4 million units, up 0.4 million units from February 2023 as the Biden Administration economic recovery continues. Consumers are expected to spend ~$40.8 billion on new vehicles this month. This is the highest on record for the month of February, and 4.1% higher than February 2023. Continue reading

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January 2024 US Light Vehicle Sales Forecast to Drop a Tad

“After December 2023 reached the strongest sales pace in several years, January’s pace has slowed to 15.2 million units. December’s SAAR of 16.2 million was inflated by elevated discounts from manufacturers, particularly as they aimed to clear out remaining inventory of 2023 model-year vehicles. In addition, changes in the eligibility of many electric vehicles to qualify for government rebates, which took effect Jan. 1, meant many EV purchases that would have occurred in January were made in December. Since January is the month of the year when the fewest vehicles are sold, the aforementioned factors have a bigger effect on the SAAR than they would in higher volume months. In fact, while the drop in the SAAR is notable, January sales results historically are not particularly indicative of future sales performance,” says Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power. Continue reading

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Bidenomics – People Spend Record $578B on New Vehicles

“December results cap off the year with a strong performance, illustrated by double-digit year-over-year sales growth and the second-highest consumer expenditure on new vehicles ever recorded for the month. Total sales of just under 15.5 million for 2023, represent a significant increase of 12.8% from 2022, when just 13.7 million vehicles were sold. What’s even more noteworthy is that consumer expenditure on new vehicles in 2023 set a record of $578 billion. This is the third consecutive year in which U.S. consumers spent more than half a trillion dollars buying new vehicles,” said Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power. Continue reading

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Record Consumer Spending Spurs US November Sales

“November results indicate a robust performance with double-digit year-over-year sales growth and record consumer expenditures for the month. The consumer expenditure record was due to strong sales growth, which outweighed a 1.9% decline in transaction prices,” said Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power. “Sales growth is being enabled by improving vehicle availability. Despite the nearly six-week UAW work stoppage, retail inventory levels in November are expected to finish around 1.6 million units, a 7.5% increase from last month and 43.7% increase compared with November 2022, but still over 40% below pre-pandemic levels, King said. Continue reading

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Consumer Spending Spree – October US Auto Sales

Total US new-vehicle sales during October 2023 are forecast to reach 1,201,800, a 6.6% increase from October 2022, according to numbers just released by J.D. Power and GlobalData.* The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is expected to be 15.5 million units, up 0.9 million units from October 2022. Retail buyers are on pace to spend $43.7 billion on new vehicles, up $0.3 billion from October 2022. Continue reading

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