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The U.S. new-vehicle sales pace in March is forecast to finish essentially unchanged from February, Cox Automotive said today. The sales pace (SAAR) in March is projected to be lower by nearly 12% year-over-year. However the annual decline is mostly reflective of a burst of pre-tariff buying that pulled demand forward a year ago. March 2025 at 17.9 million sales was a four-year high. New-vehicle sales volume in March is forecast at 1.37 million units, down 14.2% from the tariff-driven surge seen in March 2025, but higher than February by 14.3%. March is traditionally a strong month for new-vehicle sales.*
“Sales are no longer swinging wildly month to month, but growth is also harder to come by,” said Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive. “Affordability remains the central challenge for the industry, and that is limiting the market’s ability to expand beyond the mid-15-million range.”**
Q1 Reset From 2025 Extremes
“Despite the added uncertainty of a war in the Middle East, March is expected to hold steady at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of approximately 15.8 million, a level mostly consistent with the final three months of 2025,” Cox Automotive said. Early 2026 sales have remained relatively consistent with the pace seen in the final three months of 2025, holding steady in the upper-15-million range and below highs reached last spring. The sales pace in each month of Q1 was slower year-over-year, most notably in March. The sales pace suggests a smaller, slower-growth market constrained by uneven consumer demand and new challenges, Cox opined.
“After a year marked by policy-driven sales volatility, the new-vehicle market has settled into a slower rhythm in early 2026,” said Jeremy Robb, chief economist at Cox Automotive. “The pull-ahead demand created by last spring’s tariff announcements and, later, the loss of EV tax credits is (sic) now all firmly in the rear-view mirror. While the stimulus of a good tax-return season is a positive, the new-vehicle market today is being shaped by higher vehicle prices, ongoing inflationary pressures, and still-elevated interest rates.”
“New-vehicle sales performance in Q1 has been uneven across different brands, models, and market segments. Sales of smaller vehicles, particularly compact cars and compact SUVs, have fallen more than the overall industry, reflecting weaker demand from lower-income buyers and the ongoing affordability pressures for mainstream shoppers. Sales of more expensive full-size trucks and SUVs also declined in Q1. Mid-size segments, however, are forecast to see sales growth in Q1, driven by new product launches and, in some cases, buyers stepping down from higher price points. Toyota and Hyundai are expected to deliver solid share growth in Q1, as will Nissan, thanks to strong Rogue and Pathfinder sales. Stellantis is also forecast to deliver year over year share growth,” Cox said in a release.
Electric vehicles, which surged briefly last year ahead of incentive changes, have seen softer demand in early 2026, as the loss of federal tax incentives continues to negatively impact the market. “Despite rapidly increasing fuel prices, EV sales are forecast to be lower by 28% year over year in Q1. Sales of hybrid vehicles, however, thanks largely to Toyota and Honda, continue to demonstrate solid growth,” Cox said.
Cox Automotive expects the new-vehicle sales pace for the full year of 2026 to be 15.8 million, down about 2.6% from 2025, a forecast that remains unchanged from the beginning of the year. While the baseline outlook assumes current geopolitical tensions and oil-price volatility ease in the coming months, prolonged disruption could create additional downside risk for vehicle demand.
*AutoInformed on
**About Cox Automotive
Cox Automotive says it is “the world’s largest automotive services and technology provider. Fueled by the largest breadth of first-party data fed by 2.3 billion online interactions a year, Cox Automotive tailors leading solutions for car shoppers, auto manufacturers, dealers, lenders and fleets. The company has 29,000+ employees on five continents and a portfolio of industry-leading brands that include Autotrader®, Kelley Blue Book®, Manheim®, vAuto®, Dealertrack®, NextGear Capital™, CentralDispatch® and Cox Fleet®. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately owned, Atlanta-based company with $23 billion in annual revenue.”
About Ken Zino
Ken Zino, editor and publisher of AutoInformed, is a versatile auto industry participant with global experience spanning decades in print and broadcast journalism, as well as social media. He has automobile testing, marketing, public relations and communications experience. He is past president of The International Motor Press Assn, the Detroit Press Club, founding member and first President of the Automotive Press Assn. He is a member of APA, IMPA and the Midwest Automotive Press Assn.
He also brings an historical perspective while citing their contemporary relevance of the work of legendary auto writers such as Ken Purdy, Jim Dunne or Jerry Flint, or writers such as Red Smith, Mark Twain, Thomas Jefferson – all to bring perspective to a chaotic automotive universe.
Above all, decades after he first drove a car, Zino still revels in the sound of the exhaust as the throttle is blipped during a downshift and the driver’s rush that occurs when the entry, apex and exit points of a turn are smoothly and swiftly crossed. It’s the beginning of a perfect lap.
AutoInformed has an editorial philosophy that loves transportation machines of all kinds while promoting critical thinking about the future use of cars and trucks.
Zino builds AutoInformed from his background in automotive journalism starting at Hearst Publishing in New York City on Motor and MotorTech Magazines and car testing where he reviewed hundreds of vehicles in his decade-long stint as the Detroit Bureau Chief of Road & Track magazine. Zino has also worked in Europe, and Asia – now the largest automotive market in the world with China at its center.
U.S. New Vehicle Sales Forecast Flat in March
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The U.S. new-vehicle sales pace in March is forecast to finish essentially unchanged from February, Cox Automotive said today. The sales pace (SAAR) in March is projected to be lower by nearly 12% year-over-year. However the annual decline is mostly reflective of a burst of pre-tariff buying that pulled demand forward a year ago. March 2025 at 17.9 million sales was a four-year high. New-vehicle sales volume in March is forecast at 1.37 million units, down 14.2% from the tariff-driven surge seen in March 2025, but higher than February by 14.3%. March is traditionally a strong month for new-vehicle sales.*
“Sales are no longer swinging wildly month to month, but growth is also harder to come by,” said Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive. “Affordability remains the central challenge for the industry, and that is limiting the market’s ability to expand beyond the mid-15-million range.”**
Q1 Reset From 2025 Extremes
“Despite the added uncertainty of a war in the Middle East, March is expected to hold steady at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of approximately 15.8 million, a level mostly consistent with the final three months of 2025,” Cox Automotive said. Early 2026 sales have remained relatively consistent with the pace seen in the final three months of 2025, holding steady in the upper-15-million range and below highs reached last spring. The sales pace in each month of Q1 was slower year-over-year, most notably in March. The sales pace suggests a smaller, slower-growth market constrained by uneven consumer demand and new challenges, Cox opined.
“After a year marked by policy-driven sales volatility, the new-vehicle market has settled into a slower rhythm in early 2026,” said Jeremy Robb, chief economist at Cox Automotive. “The pull-ahead demand created by last spring’s tariff announcements and, later, the loss of EV tax credits is (sic) now all firmly in the rear-view mirror. While the stimulus of a good tax-return season is a positive, the new-vehicle market today is being shaped by higher vehicle prices, ongoing inflationary pressures, and still-elevated interest rates.”
“New-vehicle sales performance in Q1 has been uneven across different brands, models, and market segments. Sales of smaller vehicles, particularly compact cars and compact SUVs, have fallen more than the overall industry, reflecting weaker demand from lower-income buyers and the ongoing affordability pressures for mainstream shoppers. Sales of more expensive full-size trucks and SUVs also declined in Q1. Mid-size segments, however, are forecast to see sales growth in Q1, driven by new product launches and, in some cases, buyers stepping down from higher price points. Toyota and Hyundai are expected to deliver solid share growth in Q1, as will Nissan, thanks to strong Rogue and Pathfinder sales. Stellantis is also forecast to deliver year over year share growth,” Cox said in a release.
Electric vehicles, which surged briefly last year ahead of incentive changes, have seen softer demand in early 2026, as the loss of federal tax incentives continues to negatively impact the market. “Despite rapidly increasing fuel prices, EV sales are forecast to be lower by 28% year over year in Q1. Sales of hybrid vehicles, however, thanks largely to Toyota and Honda, continue to demonstrate solid growth,” Cox said.
Cox Automotive expects the new-vehicle sales pace for the full year of 2026 to be 15.8 million, down about 2.6% from 2025, a forecast that remains unchanged from the beginning of the year. While the baseline outlook assumes current geopolitical tensions and oil-price volatility ease in the coming months, prolonged disruption could create additional downside risk for vehicle demand.
*AutoInformed on
**About Cox Automotive
Cox Automotive says it is “the world’s largest automotive services and technology provider. Fueled by the largest breadth of first-party data fed by 2.3 billion online interactions a year, Cox Automotive tailors leading solutions for car shoppers, auto manufacturers, dealers, lenders and fleets. The company has 29,000+ employees on five continents and a portfolio of industry-leading brands that include Autotrader®, Kelley Blue Book®, Manheim®, vAuto®, Dealertrack®, NextGear Capital™, CentralDispatch® and Cox Fleet®. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately owned, Atlanta-based company with $23 billion in annual revenue.”
About Ken Zino
Ken Zino, editor and publisher of AutoInformed, is a versatile auto industry participant with global experience spanning decades in print and broadcast journalism, as well as social media. He has automobile testing, marketing, public relations and communications experience. He is past president of The International Motor Press Assn, the Detroit Press Club, founding member and first President of the Automotive Press Assn. He is a member of APA, IMPA and the Midwest Automotive Press Assn. He also brings an historical perspective while citing their contemporary relevance of the work of legendary auto writers such as Ken Purdy, Jim Dunne or Jerry Flint, or writers such as Red Smith, Mark Twain, Thomas Jefferson – all to bring perspective to a chaotic automotive universe. Above all, decades after he first drove a car, Zino still revels in the sound of the exhaust as the throttle is blipped during a downshift and the driver’s rush that occurs when the entry, apex and exit points of a turn are smoothly and swiftly crossed. It’s the beginning of a perfect lap. AutoInformed has an editorial philosophy that loves transportation machines of all kinds while promoting critical thinking about the future use of cars and trucks. Zino builds AutoInformed from his background in automotive journalism starting at Hearst Publishing in New York City on Motor and MotorTech Magazines and car testing where he reviewed hundreds of vehicles in his decade-long stint as the Detroit Bureau Chief of Road & Track magazine. Zino has also worked in Europe, and Asia – now the largest automotive market in the world with China at its center.