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Tag Archives: Jonathan Smoke
June Auto Market – Consumer Sentiment is Trump Chaotic
“Cox Automotive leading g indicators are mixed … in mid-June with a decreasing week-over -week trend related to service appointments, which were down 4% against 2024 in the week ending June 14 as geopolitical issues drive down consumer sentiment. We risk seeing momentum further decline in retail vehicle sales with scorching temperatures at the start of summer. Consumers may stay inside and away from dealerships with high prices and high uncertainty about what comes next in Iran and with uncertainty about when gas prices, interest rates and – of course – tariffs will come back down,” said Jonathan Smoke, Chief Economist. Continue reading
Trump Tariffs – His Next Economic Catastrophe
Shoot from the lip President Trump, aka Calamity Donald, today imposed tariffs of 25% across North America disrupting the North American auto market that has thrived on 30 years of free trade. Any new tariffs in place for any significant length of time will be disruptive. The tariffs at 25% are significantly higher than the profits made by the automakers and their suppliers. It is widely – if not universally – held by economists that this is an economic disaster. Continue reading
Posted in auto news, AutoInformed Editorial, economy, fools 'n frauds, manufacturing, news analysis, prices, sales, transportation, Trump Truth Tests
Tagged auto industry commentary, autoinformed.com, automotive blog, Automotive news and analysis, Calamity Donald, Jim Farley, Jonathan Smoke, Ken Zino, Stephanie Brinley, X @KenAutoinformed
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Cox Automotive Alters January Forecast Sales Down
New-vehicle sales in January increased compared to year-ago levels, but initial results indicate that market volume likely came in slightly below the forecast, Cox Automotive** said today. The original Cox Automotive forecast* called for year-over-year growth of 5.2%, but early estimates “suggest the increase was closer to 4%.” Some automakers posted record January volume and others saw declines from January 2024 levels.
“Our market continues to be one of diverging stories,” said Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke. “While the macro view is one of growth, ‘actual experience may vary.’ January is typically a low-volume sales month, and there were no shortages of sales challenges last month – from extreme cold over much of the market to major fire disruptions in Southern California. Consumer confidence also declined more than expected in January and was lower than in January 2024, the first yearly decline since September. All factors considered, the positive sales performance in January was a good sign for the market,” Smoke said. Continue reading
Posted in auto news, car sharing, connected vehicles, economy, manufacturing, marketing, news analysis, sales, Trump Truth Tests
Tagged auto industry commentary, autoinformed.com, automotive blog, Automotive news and analysis, Cox Automotive Forecast: January U.S. Auto Sales, Jonathan Smoke, Ken Zino, X @KenAutoinformed
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December U.S. Auto Sales Start Strong
The Q4 2024 Cox Automotive Dealer Sentiment Index (CADSI) released today shows growing optimism among U.S. auto dealers. Despite current weak market conditions, the post-election survey indicates increasing dealer confidence. The final Auto Market Report video of the year, noted that after a very strong November, December appears to be off to a strong start.
“We saw a surge in the outlook, technically the largest surge we have had quarterly in the history of the data,” said Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke. “It is the best fourth quarter since 2021, which was the most profitable quarter in dealer history.” Continue reading
Posted in auto news, car sharing, connected vehicles, economy, marketing, news analysis, shows and events
Tagged auto industry commentary, autoinformed.com, automotive blog, Automotive news and analysis, Cox Automotive Dealer Sentiment Index, Jonathan Smoke, kelley blue book, Ken Zino, X @KenAutoinformed
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August U.S. Auto Sales Highest Year-to-Date
After U.S. Labor Day holiday weekend sales, initial August new-vehicle sales results, as expected, are indicating healthy volume gains, according to Cox Automotive.* Full results will be in by the end of the week, but early reports suggest the extra selling days helped the auto market navigate August with strength, according to Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke in his latest Auto Market Report released this morning.
“New- and used-vehicle sales volumes are at the highest level for 2024. With growing demand, supply has tightened, and prices are creeping up. For the first time this year, the popular 3-year-old product – a staple of the used-vehicle business our team tracks closely – experienced a price increase in both the wholesale and retail markets,” said Smoke. Continue reading
Posted in auto news, economy, marketing, news analysis, results, sales, shows and events
Tagged auto industry commentary, autoinformed.com, automotive blog, Automotive news and analysis, Bidenomics, Cox Automotive, Jonathan Smoke, Ken Zino, Personal Consumption Expenditure Index, X @KenAutoinformed
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Auto Industry Continues to Rebound from Pandemic Lows
Cox Automotive* experts on a media call today said U.S. new-vehicle sales in Q1 will increase 5.6% year-over -year (YoY) and reach 3.8 million units. The YoY increase in Q1 sales implies that the new-vehicle market in the U.S. continues to recover slowly from the 10-year low – 13.8 million total sales – recorded in 2022. AutoInformed notes that the Biden Administration recovery continues despite the Federal Reserve’s efforts to harm the economy by keeping interest rates unduly high. Continue reading
Posted in auto news, economy, electric vehicles, manufacturing, marketing, news analysis
Tagged auto industry commentary, autoinformed.com, automotive blog, Automotive news and analysis, Biden Administration economic recovery, Charlie Chesbrough, Cox Automotive, Jonathan Smoke, Ken Zino, Stephanie Valdez Streaty
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US Vehicle Transaction Prices Down in January
The automobile market is not contributing to inflation. The extensively covered January Consumer Price Index (CPI), a key measure of inflation is widely misrepresented in AutoInformed’s opinion.
Cox Automotive* said today that it observed declines in retail vehicle prices last month, according to actual transaction data. Kelley Blue Book reported that average transaction prices for new vehicles were down by 3.5% year-over-year, Another Cox measure, Dealertrack data show average used retail prices down slightly less. “Both measures indicate the retail auto market is not pushing overall inflation higher,” Cox said. Continue reading
Posted in auto news, blog, economy, new vehicle, news analysis, prices, sales
Tagged auto industry commentary, autoinformed.com, automotive blog, Automotive news and analysis, Biden Administration Recovery, Bidenomics, Cox Automotive, Jonathan Smoke, kelley blue book, Ken Zino, Manheim
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Cox Automotive – US Vehicle Market Off To Slow Start, But…
Chief Economist of Cox Automotive* Jonathan Smoke said this morning that the US auto market is off to a slow start. However, the two-handed economist said that “We are seeing more positive momentum in the used-car market and in fixed operations. Tax refunds are just now starting to flow, and that should bring the strongest used-car market performance for the year.”
“We’re only halfway through January with the credit card spending data. But so far it appears that the consumer is holding up with spending growth stable relative to the level of spending growth we had at the end of last year. That was slower than we had seen previously in 2023. But it is enough. To produce growth of roughly 4% in nominal terms in consumer spending, and that’s enough to keep the economy moving forward,” Smoke said.** Continue reading
Forecast is Finally Normal for 2024 US Auto Market
“Our research suggests that Americans are putting more emphasis on buying/owning personal transportation, in contrast to 2018 and 2019, when consumers put a higher value on “access to transportation,” said Jonathan Smoke Cox Automotive Chief Economist. “And after tumbling in 2021 and 2022, satisfaction with the car buying process is expected to improve in the year ahead, thanks in part to better inventory and the return of discounting, but also from improved processes at the dealership that save time and make car buying more efficient.” Continue reading
April Fool’s Day – Trump Tariffs Hurting Economy
The U.S. economy is at a turning point with the erratic actions of what AutoInformed* observes is the Trump mis-administration threatening the economic health of the nation. We are looking at a global trade war leading to a recession or if past Republican economic policies are any indication – a depression. The latest Cox Automotive Industry Forecast** conducted this morning reinforces that view. Brother can you spare a dime?
“We are at an interesting crossroads here in late Q one 2025,” said Jonathan Smoke, Chief Economist at Cox. “at the end of last year my wish for you all was that the economy and the auto market would perform to the upside. Today we will be talking about sides, but downward forecasts and darker downsides. The economy and auto market have been relatively strong over the last 6 months. The problem which we will be getting into is that a substantial change in trade through massive increases in tariffs will be highly disruptive to North American vehicle production and could lead to a full scale global trade war and a much weaker the economy. We’re not there yet but we’re a week away from moves that make the dark side more likely,” Smoke said. Continue reading →