Tag Archives: Jonathan Smoke

April Fool’s Day – Trump Tariffs Hurting Economy

The U.S. economy is at a turning point with the erratic actions of what AutoInformed* observes is the Trump mis-administration threatening the economic health of the nation. We are looking at a global trade war leading to a recession or if past Republican economic policies are any indication – a depression. The latest Cox Automotive Industry Forecast** conducted this morning reinforces that view. Brother can you spare a dime?

“We are at an interesting crossroads here in late Q one 2025,” said Jonathan Smoke, Chief Economist at Cox. “at the end of last year my wish for you all was that the economy and the auto market would perform to the upside. Today we will be talking about sides, but  downward forecasts and darker downsides. The economy and auto market have been relatively strong over the last 6 months. The problem which we will be getting into is that a substantial change in trade through massive increases in tariffs will be highly disruptive to North American vehicle production and could lead to a full scale global trade war and a much weaker the economy. We’re not there yet but we’re a week away from moves that make the dark side more likely,” Smoke said. Continue reading

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Trump Tariffs – His Next Economic Catastrophe

Shoot from the lip President Trump, aka Calamity Donald, today imposed tariffs of 25% across North America disrupting the North American auto market that has thrived on 30 years of free trade. Any new tariffs in place for any significant length of time will be disruptive. The tariffs at 25% are significantly higher than the profits made by the automakers and their suppliers. It is widely – if not universally – held by economists that this is an economic disaster. Continue reading

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Cox Automotive Alters January Forecast Sales Down

New-vehicle sales in January increased compared to year-ago levels, but initial results indicate that market volume likely came in slightly below the forecast, Cox Automotive** said today. The original Cox Automotive forecast* called for year-over-year growth of 5.2%, but early estimates “suggest the increase was closer to 4%.” Some automakers posted record January volume and others saw declines from January 2024 levels.

“Our market continues to be one of diverging stories,” said Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke. “While the macro view is one of growth, ‘actual experience may vary.’ January is typically a low-volume sales month, and there were no shortages of sales challenges last month – from extreme cold over much of the market to major fire disruptions in Southern California. Consumer confidence also declined more than expected in January and was lower than in January 2024, the first yearly decline since September. All factors considered, the positive sales performance in January was a good sign for the market,” Smoke said. Continue reading

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December U.S. Auto Sales Start Strong

The Q4 2024 Cox Automotive Dealer Sentiment Index (CADSI) released today shows growing optimism among U.S. auto dealers. Despite current weak market conditions, the post-election survey indicates increasing dealer confidence. The final Auto Market Report video of the year, noted that after a very strong November, December appears to be off to a strong start.

“We saw a surge in the outlook, technically the largest surge we have had quarterly in the history of the data,” said  Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke. “It is the best fourth quarter since 2021, which was the most profitable quarter in dealer history.” Continue reading

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August U.S. Auto Sales Highest Year-to-Date

After U.S. Labor Day holiday weekend sales, initial August new-vehicle sales results, as expected, are indicating healthy volume gains, according to Cox Automotive.* Full results will be in by the end of the week, but early reports suggest the extra selling days helped the auto market navigate August with strength, according to Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke  in his latest Auto Market Report released this morning.

“New- and used-vehicle sales volumes are at the highest level for 2024. With growing demand, supply has tightened, and prices are creeping up. For the first time this year, the popular 3-year-old product – a staple of the used-vehicle business our team tracks closely – experienced a price increase in both the wholesale and retail markets,” said Smoke. Continue reading

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Auto Industry Continues to Rebound from Pandemic Lows

Cox Automotive* experts on a media call today said U.S. new-vehicle sales in Q1 will increase 5.6% year-over -year (YoY) and reach 3.8 million units. The YoY increase in Q1 sales implies that the new-vehicle market in the U.S. continues to recover slowly from the 10-year low – 13.8 million total sales – recorded in 2022. AutoInformed notes that the Biden Administration recovery continues despite the Federal Reserve’s efforts to harm the economy by keeping interest rates unduly high. Continue reading

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US Vehicle Transaction Prices Down in January

The automobile market is not contributing to inflation. The extensively covered January Consumer Price Index (CPI), a key measure of inflation is widely misrepresented in AutoInformed’s opinion.

Cox Automotive* said today that it observed declines in retail vehicle prices last month, according to actual transaction data. Kelley Blue Book reported that average transaction prices for new vehicles were down by 3.5% year-over-year, Another Cox measure, Dealertrack data show average used retail prices down slightly less. “Both measures indicate the retail auto market is not pushing overall inflation higher,” Cox said. Continue reading

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Cox Automotive – US Vehicle Market Off To Slow Start, But…

Chief Economist of Cox Automotive* Jonathan Smoke said this morning that the US auto market is off to a slow start. However, the two-handed economist said that “We are seeing more positive momentum in the used-car market and in fixed operations. Tax refunds are just now starting to flow, and that should bring the strongest used-car market performance for the year.”

“We’re only halfway through January with the credit card spending data. But so far it appears that the consumer is holding up with spending growth stable relative to the level of spending growth we had at the end of last year. That was slower than we had seen previously in 2023. But it is enough. To produce growth of roughly 4% in nominal terms in consumer spending, and that’s enough to keep the economy moving forward,” Smoke said.** Continue reading

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Forecast is Finally Normal for 2024 US Auto Market

“Our research suggests that Americans are putting more emphasis on buying/owning personal transportation, in contrast to 2018 and 2019, when consumers put a higher value on “access to transportation,” said Jonathan Smoke Cox Automotive Chief Economist. “And after tumbling in 2021 and 2022, satisfaction with the car buying process is expected to improve in the year ahead, thanks in part to better inventory and the return of discounting, but also from improved processes at the dealership that save time and make car buying more efficient.” Continue reading

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