Tag Archives: j.d power

Slight Labor Day Jump Forecast for August US Auto Sales

Absolute new-vehicle sales for August 2024, including retail and non-retail transactions, are set to reach 1,437,954, a 4.2% increase from August 2023 on a selling day adjusted basis, according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power and GlobalData.* August 2024 has 28 selling days, one more than August 2023. Comparing the same sales volume without adjusting for the number of selling days translates to an increase of 8.1% from 2023.

“New-vehicle sales in August are up from a year ago, as expected. A key element of the improvement is that this year, the Labor Day holiday weekend falls within the August** sales reporting period instead of September where it normally falls,” said Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power. “While the sales results for August will be positive, the seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR), which corrects for Labor Day timing, is relatively modest at just 15.3 million units.” Continue reading

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May 2024 US New Vehicle Sales Forecast Up

US new-vehicle sales for May 2024, including retail and non-retail transactions, are forecast at 1,446,800, a 2.9% increase from May 2023 on a selling day adjusted basis, according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power and GlobalData.* May 2024 has … Continue reading

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April 2024 US Vehicle Sales Drop Slightly

“Calendar effects meant that it was always going to be challenging to match last year’s sales in April. However, with replenished inventory levels helping the market to recover a year ago, the industry is now facing a higher bar in order to keep growing,” said David Oakley, Manager, Americas Sales Forecasts, GlobalData. Continue reading

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April US New Vehicle Sales Flat as Trade-in Values Drop

Total new-vehicle sales for April 2024, including both retail and non-retail transactions, are estimated to reach 1,304,600 units, a 0.9% decrease from April 2023 on a selling day adjusted basis, according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power and GlobalData.* … Continue reading

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March US Vehicle Sales Up. Record Q1 Consumer Spending!

Total US new-vehicle sales for March 2024, are projected to reach 1,525,700 units, a 12.1% increase from March 2023, according to a joint forecast today from J.D. Power and GlobalData.* The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is expected to be 16.4 million units, up 1.6 million units from March 2023. New-vehicle total sales for Q1 2024 are projected at 3,830,500 units, a 4.5% increase from Q1 2023 when adjusted for selling days as the Biden Administration recovery continues.

New-vehicle retail sales for March 2024 are also expected to increase when compared with March 2023. Retail sales of new vehicles are forecast at 1,225,000 units, a 10.7% increase from March 2023. New-vehicle retail sales for Q1 2024 are projected at  3,066,500 units, a 4.5% increase from Q1 2023 when adjusted for selling days. Continue reading

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EV Grumblings – Tire Replacement Rates?

J.D. Power said today that early data from its unpublished 2024 U.S. Original Equipment Tire Customer Satisfaction Study shows that EV tires may fall short of meeting this expectation, with a higher replacement rate in years One and Two of ownership than with internal combustion vehicle tires. (see AutoInformed: J.D. Power – Vehicle Dependability Down Again)

In what could be a stretch of a still to be verified conclusion based on a much needed larger sample size that doesn’t yet exist, Power claimed that “more than a quarter of new vehicle shoppers who are considering an EV cite reliability as a factor in this decision.” Well, duh, they might also prioritize other things such as saving the planet, eschewing fossil fuels, and charging at home. How this sorts out in a changing marketplace remains to be seen. Power did say that the gap in replacement rates appears to be closing. Continue reading

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Record Consumer Spending Forecast for US February Sales

Total new-vehicle sales for February 2024 in the US, including retail and non-retail transactions, are projected to reach 1,214,600 units, a 1.4% increase from February 2023, according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power and GlobalData* issued today. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is expected to be 15.4 million units, up 0.4 million units from February 2023 as the Biden Administration economic recovery continues. Consumers are expected to spend ~$40.8 billion on new vehicles this month. This is the highest on record for the month of February, and 4.1% higher than February 2023. Continue reading

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January 2024 US Light Vehicle Sales Forecast to Drop a Tad

“After December 2023 reached the strongest sales pace in several years, January’s pace has slowed to 15.2 million units. December’s SAAR of 16.2 million was inflated by elevated discounts from manufacturers, particularly as they aimed to clear out remaining inventory of 2023 model-year vehicles. In addition, changes in the eligibility of many electric vehicles to qualify for government rebates, which took effect Jan. 1, meant many EV purchases that would have occurred in January were made in December. Since January is the month of the year when the fewest vehicles are sold, the aforementioned factors have a bigger effect on the SAAR than they would in higher volume months. In fact, while the drop in the SAAR is notable, January sales results historically are not particularly indicative of future sales performance,” says Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power. Continue reading

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Bidenomics – People Spend Record $578B on New Vehicles

“December results cap off the year with a strong performance, illustrated by double-digit year-over-year sales growth and the second-highest consumer expenditure on new vehicles ever recorded for the month. Total sales of just under 15.5 million for 2023, represent a significant increase of 12.8% from 2022, when just 13.7 million vehicles were sold. What’s even more noteworthy is that consumer expenditure on new vehicles in 2023 set a record of $578 billion. This is the third consecutive year in which U.S. consumers spent more than half a trillion dollars buying new vehicles,” said Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power. Continue reading

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Record Consumer Spending Spurs US November Sales

“November results indicate a robust performance with double-digit year-over-year sales growth and record consumer expenditures for the month. The consumer expenditure record was due to strong sales growth, which outweighed a 1.9% decline in transaction prices,” said Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power. “Sales growth is being enabled by improving vehicle availability. Despite the nearly six-week UAW work stoppage, retail inventory levels in November are expected to finish around 1.6 million units, a 7.5% increase from last month and 43.7% increase compared with November 2022, but still over 40% below pre-pandemic levels, King said. Continue reading

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Consumer Spending Spree – October US Auto Sales

Total US new-vehicle sales during October 2023 are forecast to reach 1,201,800, a 6.6% increase from October 2022, according to numbers just released by J.D. Power and GlobalData.* The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is expected to be 15.5 million units, up 0.9 million units from October 2022. Retail buyers are on pace to spend $43.7 billion on new vehicles, up $0.3 billion from October 2022. Continue reading

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US July Vehicle Sales Forecast Up Significantly Again

Total new-vehicle sales for July 2023, including retail and non-retail transactions, are projected to reach 1,320,982 units, a 21.5% increase from July 2022, according to a joint forecast released today from J.D. Power and GlobalData.* Total sales of new vehicles this month are expected to reach 1,320,982 units, a 21.5% increase compared with July 2022 when adjusted for selling days.

Bidenomics is clearly working in AutoInformed’s point of view. (July 2023 has 25 selling days, one less than July 2022.) Comparing the same sales volume without adjusting for the number of selling days translates to an increase of 16.8% year-over-year. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is expected to be 16 million units, up 2.6 million units from July 2022. Continue reading

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June US New-Vehicle Sales Forecast Up Again

“The 2023 theme of strong sales growth, enabled by increased vehicle production and pent-up demand, is continuing in June. On a volume basis, June year-to-date total sales will be just more than 7.6 million units – an increase of 13.6% – but still below pre-pandemic sales levels which were north of 8 million, said Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power, which is part of GlobalData. Continue reading

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May US Light Vehicles Sales Forecast Up 20%

“The industry is positioned for another strong month in May as retail sales are estimated to surge 9.6% from a year ago. This positive performance is complemented by a projected 0.7% increase in average transaction prices. As a result, it is anticipated that consumers will spend nearly $47 billion on the purchase of new vehicles in May, showcasing a significant 13% growth from a year ago,” said Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power. Continue reading

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NADA – 2023 US Sales Forecast at 14.6 Million

Forecasting is a risky business in these times. Multiple factors are in play. The increasing number of new-vehicle incentives also contributed to the April sales gains. According to J.D. Power, average incentive spending per unit in April is expected to total $1599, an increase of, gulp,  58.9% compared with April 2022. While average incentive spending has risen from extreme lows, it has not increased at the same rate at all automakers. Some brands have been able to finally increase new-vehicle supply, but others are still struggling. To state the obvious, brands with more to sell are positioned to offer  incentives. Key here might be the return of Memorial Day sales later at the end of May. Continue reading

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