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The U.S. economy is at a turning point with the erratic actions of what AutoInformed* observes is the Trump mis-administration threatening the economic health of the nation. We are looking at a global trade war leading to a recession or if past Republican economic policies are any indication – a depression. The latest Cox Automotive Industry Forecast** conducted this morning reinforces that view. Brother can you spare a dime?

“We are at an interesting crossroads here in late Q one 2025,” said Jonathan Smoke, Chief Economist at Cox. “at the end of last year my wish for you all was that the economy and the auto market would perform to the upside. Today we will be talking about sides, but  downward forecasts and darker downsides. The economy and auto market have been relatively strong over the last 6 months. The problem which we will be getting into is that a substantial change in trade through massive increases in tariffs will be highly disruptive to North American vehicle production and could lead to a full scale global trade war and a much weaker the economy. We’re not there yet but we’re a week away from moves that make the dark side more likely,” Smoke said. Continue reading →